Is it better to be optimistic and be disappointed by the results, or pessimistic and be pleasantly surprised?

I find myself asking that question a lot these days, and not just about the Washington Nationals.

There is an awful lot of optimistic talk coming out of Viera right now, and on the interwebs, about the prospects of significant improvement for the upcoming Nationals season.

Optimists are pointing to the off-season acquisitions and "youth" of the team progressing to turn consecutive 100-loss seasons into a competitive squad capable of approaching .500 this season.

Mike Rizzo identified four significant problem areas heading into the off-season.  He wanted a couple of dependable, veteran starting pitchers, some new arms in the bullpen, catching help, and an upgrade in the middle infield.

And the optimists say that he accomplished all his goals.

At the beginning of the off-season, Rizzo acquired Jason Marquis, an all-star last season, to lead the starting rotation.  Then towards the end, the crafty GM signed rehabilitating Chien-Ming Wang to his squad.  Wang won't be available until May or June as he rehabs his surgically repaired shoulder.

In the bullpen, Rizzo signed free agent Matt Capps and traded the first overall Rule 5 pick for Brian Bruney, a pitcher the Yankees left was expendable.  Capps was quite capable in 2007-08 while being used as a part-time closer.  But despite the gaudy save totals in 2009, he was downright terrible, with an ERA approaching 6.00.

Bruney, himself injured for a chunk of last season, was left off the Yankees' post-season roster in favor of a third catcher.  Also added were ancient Eddie Guardado and Tyler Walker.  They should join last season's additions of Tyler Clippard and Sean Burnett to form bullpen that will be better than last season, regardless of their success.

To address the catching needs, the team picked up certain hall-of-famer Ivan Rodriguez.  Problem is, Rodriguez is less than a shell of what he once was.  The players can talk all they like about what he "brings to the team", but the bottom line is that he OBP'd .280 last season.  There are pitchers in the NL that hit better than that. 

If Jesus Flores takes a while to recover form his arm injuries (and he still isn't allowed to throw back to the pitchers during bullpen sessions yet), Rodriguez, and his sub-.300 OBP will get the bulk of the at bats at catcher.

The middle infield situation remains muddy, as it had all off-season.  First, Ian Desmond was going to start at short and Cristian Guzman was going to get moved to second.  Then, the team courted Orlando Hudson all winter.  When Hudson decided to help break in the new stadium in Minnesota, the Nats went to fall-back option Adam Kennedy, who is essentially a clone of Ronnie Belliard at bat, with a declining glove of his own.

So as you read all the quotes coming out of Viera, I urge you to take them with a grain of salt.  It's ok to be optimistic.  But please temper your optimism with a dose of reality.

Every single one of the off-season acquisitions come with caveats, warning flags.  

Marquis is a slight workhorse who saw his innings pitched total increase over 40 innings from 2008 to 2009.  No one knows if Wang will return to form when healthy.  Capps fought injury to the worst ERA of his career last year.  Rodriguez hasn't been an above-average player since 2004 and was downright lousy with the bat last season.  Adam Kennedy was a third option.

I realize that those above sentences are rather gloomy, especially considering all the "feel good" coming out of Florida.

But it again leads me to the question I posed in the beginning:  Is it better to be optimistic and be disappointed by the results, or pessimistic and be pleasantly surprised?

True optimism comes from the youngsters in camp, namely Stephen Strasburg, Drew Storen and Ian Desmond.

But as the team is configured now, none of these players will wear the major league uniform until Memorial Day at the earliest.

So hope for better things from the collection of veterans Mike Rizzo assembled during the off-season, just don't necessarily expect it. 

Save the real optimism for the kids.

So Mike Rizzo goes with the devil he knows.

Livan Hernandez was brought back to the Nationals today, signing a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training.

I'll keep this brief. 

What this means is that now that Ross Detwiler is out with hip surgery, the Nats front office has so little confidence in Garrett Mock, Matt Chico, Shairon Martis, Collin Balester, J.D. Martin and Craig Stammen that they would rather give the ball every five days to Hernandez, who they know will give the team seven innings and an ERA of 5.25.

The Nats are now looking at a starting staff with Miguel Batista and Livan Hernandez at the 4-5 spots. 

If Scott Olsen can't go?  Move those two up and it's Russian Roulette in the five-spot.

The future may hold some promise, with the possibility of Chien-Ming Wang and Detwiler and Baseball Jesus all arriving around Memorial Day. 

Until then?  Well, things might be a little rough out of the gates.

Just a quick post this morning to explain the lack of posting this week and next week, despite the flurry of activity from spring training, which I would much rather be paying attention to.

Without getting into the details of the situation, a family member has taken ill and I need to dedicate my attention to that for the time being.

We might post or reply to things on Twitter (@NatsNewsNetwork) or on Facebook, since we can access that on our mobile devices.

Thank you for your understanding and patience.

Nats News Network will return as soon as we can.

According to multiple sources, the Washington Nationals have signed right-handed starting pitcher Chien-Ming Wang.  The terms of the deal have not been disclosed.

Wang is coming off two seasons worth of injuries.  He missed the second half of 2008 with a foot injury, sustained running the bases during interleague play, and most of 2009 with shoulder surgery.

Before the surgery in 2009, Wang was 1-6 with a 9.64 ERA and 2.024 WHIP in 12 appearances (nine starts).

Wang is a two-time 19 game winner for the New York Yankees, posting sub-3.80 ERAs in both of his full-season campaigns.  He also led the AL in fewest home runs allowed in 2006 and 2007.

Still in rehab from his surgery, Wang will not be ready to join the rotation until mid-May at the earliest.

Here's the press release...

NATIONALS SIGN 2B ADAM KENNEDY

The Washington Nationals today signed free-agent second baseman Adam Kennedy to a one-year contract. Nationals Senior Vice President & General Manager Mike Rizzo made the announcement.

Last season, Kennedy batted .289 with 29 doubles, 11 home runs, 63 RBI and 20 stolen bases in 129 games with Oakland depite playing home games at pitcher-friendly Oakland-Alameda County Stadium. Not only was Kennedy’s .410 slugging percentage last year the second-best mark of his career (.449 in 2002), he ranked second in the AL by batting .368 (43-for-117) with runners in scoring position. Additionally, seven of Kennedy’s 11 homers gave Oakland the lead and another tied the game.

In 11 big league seasons, the 34 year-old Kennedy has hit .277 (1270-for-4583) with 241 doubles, 68 home runs, 486 RBI and 156 stolen bases in 1356 games with Oakland, St. Louis and Los Angeles (AL). He has hit .300 or betters twice (2005, 2002) during his career, and thrice posted a double-digit home run total (2009, 2003-04) and swiped 20 or more bags (2009, 2003, 2000).

Known as a strong defender, Kennedy’s 4.92 total chances per 9.0 innings ranked second among all AL second basemen (minimum 750 games) in the just-completed decade (2000-09).

Kennedy is perhaps best known as the MVP of the 2002 ALCS, during which he homered three times in Game 5 to register just the sixth three-homer game in post-season history. Kennedy has twice reached the post-season, and is a .308 career hitter in 25 playoff games. He earned a World Series ring with Anaheim in 2002.

As I've said previously, Kennedy's arrival means Cristian Guzman will go back to short, and Ian Desmond will either play short in Triple-A or play a utility role here in Washington, even playing all three outfield spots, according to an interview with Jim Riggleman earlier inthe week.

Let's hope, for Desmond's sake, they send the kid back to Syracuse to play everyday.  As much as he may want to stick with the big club. it's more important that he play every day at this stage in his career.  This team has plenty of utility (Harris, Bruntlett, Orr) to go around that they don't need to risk one of the team's solid prospects in the spot.

There has been no announcement on a corresponding move to make room from Kennedy on the 40-man roster.  We'll keep our ears open.

Bullet-point style!

• Chein Ming Wang still hasn't signed anywhere.  Sounds like he's going to take a few more days.  There's still no more word on whether there are any more suitors for the righty who is recovering from shoulder surgery.
• Elijah Dukes re-upped for one year and $444K.
• Adam Kennedy is taking his physical today and could be announced to the public in the next day or so.
• The team is preparing for arbitration hearings with relievers Brian Bruney and Sean Burnett.

One of the things I love most about sports media is how stories break.  It's fascinating to me that different sources have completely different information, and it's a cat-and-mouse game...between rival reporters, between the teams and reporters, between agents and the teams.

Competely fascinating.

What we have here, this morning (afternoon now) is not a failure to communicate, per se, but differing parties getting different messages.

On one hand, you have Peter Abraham, Boston Globe reporter, tweeting that Wang has decided on signing with the Washington Nationals, going so far to specualte that Wang "could be in the rotation by May," as he is that cloose to returing from last season's shoulder surgery. 

Abraham is supposedly close to the pitcher according to sources, which leads to the question of why a Boston writer is so close to a player that has spent his entire career thus far in New York.

Jon Heyman, of SI, tweeted that Wang was choosing between the Nats and one other team "within 10 days."

On the other hand, you have Nats beat reporters Bill Ladson and Ben Goessling saying that although the Nationals are interested and monitoring Wang, that reports that he's signed are false and not close.

But we also have Chico Harlan saying the Nats are the leader in the clubhouse.

And apparently, according to XM Homeplate, Wang is throwing for the Dodgers today.

So the truth lies in there somewhere.

Wang is an interesting case study.  He's the original John Lannan.  He's been successful on the major league level without the ability to miss bats.  He's a sinkerball pitcher that coaxes ground ball after ground ball, with a lifetime K/9 of 4.2.

What's even more interesting is last season in his 12 starts (where it was obvious that he was hurt, going 1-6 with a 9.64 ERA), his K/9 was 6.2, the highest it had ever been in his five big league seasons.

As an investment, the Nationals have to take a chance on a 30-year old pitcher with a lifetime 4.16 ERA if he's really healthy.

Then, they just need to find a couple guys behind him to pick the ball up.

Mark Zuckerman, late of the Washington Times, is having a fund drive to come up with the funds to cover the entirety of the Washington Nationals spring training.

It's a unique opportunity for Mark, who is a talented and perceptive writer.  Having been RIFed from the Times along with the rest of their sports reporters and columnists, Mark has put up his own shingle, the provocatively titled "Nationals Insider".

Here's where things get intersting and, frankly, a little murky.  Mark, technically, is not a "Nationals Insider" anymore.  Currently he's an internet writer, joining the three dozen or so other internet writers and bloggers in the Natosphere that write about the Nationals on a regular and frequent basis.  This is no longer his source of income (for now), and at that, in order to provide quality coverage of the team and spring training, he needs your help to get there.

The thing Mark has going for him is his BBWAA card, which he's held for nine years now.  That instantly qualifies him for credentials to cover the team, whether he's employed by a media outlet or not.  That exemption only applies for one year from his termination date, though.

During the season, it's entirely likely that Mark will freelance for an outlet and will have some source of income, but he has no such sponsorship for spring training.  So if you want to see a professional, independent persepective covering the Nats in Florida, by all means click on the link at the top of the article and contribute to the cause.

Personally, this idea is very intriguing to me.  My wife and I go to spring training for a week to ten days every year, and we cover it as best we can with stories, news and pictures from the sidelines and from relationships we've built since we started our site two seasons ago. 

I hold out hope that the Nationals will one day (hopefully soon) follow in the footsteps of their NHL cousins, the Washington Capitals, and credential responsible independent internet writers, opening up coverage of the team to even more voices, and more comprehensive coverage.

As I said before, Mark has a very unique opportunity here.  As he continues to pursue gainful employment, he can provide in depth coverage of the team without filter, deadlines, or bottom lines.  He IS the new media, and there are others that will follow in his footsteps.

THIS Shawn Estes.

I kid, but here are the facts:

He didn't pitch last year. 

He pitched nine games in 2008. 

He didn't pitch in 2007. 

He pitched one game in 2006.

Before that, when he did pitch, he hadn't had a sub-4.80 ERA since 2001.

I understand stockpiling pitchers.  I do.  But if this guy ever takes the mound for the Nationals this year, they should have gone through so many pitchers that 100 losses would be inevitable.  If he leaves camp with the team?  Oy vey!

More than likely, he doesn't show anything in Spring Training and gets cut.  But there are so many young starters in camp, why bring in another used up, injury-riddled arm to take innings from guys that you might, um, actually use someday.

The Washington Nationals have reportedly signed 2B Adam Kennedy to a one-year, $1.25 M contract, with a $2.0M ption for 2011.

Kennedy, 33, played with Oakland last season and hit .289/.348/.410 with 11 home runs, 6 RBIs and 20 SBs.

The move signifies that Cristian Guzman will continue to play shortstop and the Nats plan on starting the season with Ian Desmond playing every day in Triple-A Syracuse.

So much for Mike Rizzo's stated goal of improving the middle infield defense this off-season.  If it's possible, it could be even worse than last year.

Kennedy played 50 games at second base last season for the A's.  He was a whopping -14.8 UZR/150, meaning he was almost 15 runs worse than the average second baseman in the league last season.  

Despite a small resurgence with his bat last season, Kennedy is a player that is getting old very fast, and now he's blocking a promising young player from getting valuable playing time in the majors while the Nats can afford to do it.

MLB.com's Bill Ladson just tweeted: 

I just learned from a baseball source that 2B Orlando Hudson will not play for the #Nats. He most likely will play for the Twins.

Good for the Twins.  They had a injury to holdover Nick Punto and they really needed to get somebody in there.

But this isn't a Twins blog, it's a Nats blog.

I advocated much earlier this off-season that it was time for the Nats to let Desmond sink or swim at shortstop, and I'll reiterate that opinion here. 

Desmond is not really a kid anymore. He’s 24 years old and has six years in the minors leagues under him. If he isn’t ready to be playing by now, a couple more months in Triple-A isn’t really going to help.

I stand by that 100%.  Bringing in Hudson would have been defensible.  He's been a good player most of his career, has decent on base skills, and apparently is revered by several on the squad.

But it would be a HUGE mistake to block Desmond's playing time this season bringing in a journeyman like Adam Kennedy.  Kennedy is not a good fielder, the primary stated reason Mike Rizzo was trying to lure Hudson here.

The Nats would be much better off, this season and in the long run, allowing Desmond to grow into the position at the major league level.

Sure, Desmond still has some problem with some of the throws from short.  It's not lack of arm strength or range, it's that he sometimes just gets careless.  He can make the difficult look routine and the routine look terrible.

Does that sound like anyone else you know?

The Nationals had to play Ryan Zimmerman from the moment he looked like a major leaguer, which wasn't too long into his professional career.  He was, and remains, the face of the franchise.

But the team allowed him to work through his throwing problems, which lasted seemingly right up until the time that Manny Acta was let go last season.  Not many people remember this now, but on Friday, July 17, Zim was second in the National League in errors.

Not just for third basemen.  In the entire National League.  His fielding percentage at third base was third worst of anyone that qualified at that point.

But because of who he is, and his hitting, Zimmerman was allowed the opportunity to work through his throwing problem, and he did.  His defensive performance in the second half of the season was stellar.  He would commit just five more errors after July 17, and go on to win his first Gold Glove.

I'm not suggesting that Ian Desmond will win a Gold Glove.  But what I am suggesting is that he be given every opportunity this season to prove, or disprove, that he is going to be a viable major league shortstop.

In his tryout last September, one manager Jim Riggleman was reluctant to grant until Cristian Guzman came up lame, Desmond certainly held his own (.280/.318/.561 with four homers in 89 plate appearances).  Rizzo like to caution about September tryouts, but they're major league games regardless.

The Nationals are all about building through the draft, home-growing their players.  Ryan Zimmerman was the first, and remains the only, position player the Nats have developed since moving here from Montreal.

Ian Desmond can become the second, if they just give him the opportunity.

Orlando Hudson is a four-time gold glove winner, including last season, when during the stretch drive he was usurped at second base for the Dodgers by ex-Nat Ronnie Belliard. 

While I'm not going to debate Joe Torre's decision making there, I would like to offer some points to consider for everyone clamoring for Mike Rizzo to sign Orlando Hudson to play second base for the Nationals next season, with the idea of improving the middle infield defense.

For the purposes of this debate, I'm leaving the offense out of the equation because the stated goal here, remember, is to upgrade the middle infield defense.

Hudson's UZR/150 last season was -3.7 which placed him 13th among 20 qualifiers in the majors.

UZR is the number of runs above or below average a fielder is in both range runs, outfield arm runs, double play runs and error runs combined.  UZR/150 is the number of runs above or below average a fielder is, per 150 defensive games.

However, UZR does not measure an infielder's arm, nor does it value an infielder's ability to catch fly balls or line drives--it only measures a player's proficiency at turning ground balls into outs, so it's not a perfect guage.

Now as we read above, the components for infielders UZR are:  Range, Double Plays and Errors.

Hudson was recorded with only eight errors last season, which put him in the top third of second basemen.  His range factor was 4.7, which put him in the middle of the pack.  Where Hudson's UZR number took a real hit was in double plays.  He participated in 68 DPs, which was 17th out of 20 qualifiers.

Here's another strange thing regarding Hudson's defensive season last year.  He was second among qualifiers at putouts:

Chase Utley, PHI--354

Orlando Hudson, LAD--325

Robinson Cano, NYY--308

But Hudson was only 14th in assists.  It's difficult to reconcile the fact that his range was average, but his assists total was in the lower third.  He's just not making all the plays he used to be able to, relative to everyone else playing second base in the majors last season.

Judging by the UZR/150 number, it's easy to say "Hudson's slipping as a fielder".  And he probably is.  He is 32, after all.

To put it another way so that it's relative to Nationals fans, Hudson's UZR/150 was -3.7 last season.  Cristian Guzman's UZR/150 at short was -2.6.  So relative to position and competition last season, statistically Guzman was a marginally better shortstop than Hudson was a second baseman.

Back to Ronnie Belliard for a moment.  His UZR/150 was a robust 6.6, meaning he was a better than average defensive second baseman last season, compared to -3.7 below average for Hudson.

Maybe Joe Torre knew what he was doing.

For what it's worth, Adam Kennedy, another name that's been kicked around, was -14.8 last season.

Consider all this as you contemplate upgrading the middle infield defense.

Rizzo likes to say that he uses statistics to back up what his eyes see.  In his pursuit of Hudson, at least as a defensive upgrade, he must be trusting his eyes.

Nats News Network was asked to participate in a roundtable by HotStove.com, discussing whether the Nationals made the right move retaining Jim Riggleman and bypassing Bobby Valentine.

The question posed to the panel was farily narrow.  They did not ask us whether we thought Riggleman was the BEST choice of manager of the Nationals, but rather concentrating on the Valentine aspect of it.

Here is the question they posed to us:

The Nats promoted Jim Riggleman to manager midway through the 2009 season, then decided to retain him for 2010, as well. Should the team have pressed instead to bring in Bobby Valentine as manager? He has a history of doing a lot with a little (for example, with the 2000 Mets), and could’ve been a real force in re-shaping the franchise.

So click through on the link to see what I said, and some of the other Nats bloggers as well, Ed from Federal Baseball, Will from The Nats Blog and Anthony from Bleacher Report.

The Washington Nationals capped off their winter caravan with the Second Annual NatsFest at Nationals Park.  Despite the frigid temperatures and snow, fans made it out to the park to see old friends, get autographs and photos with players and listen to Q&A sesions.  From the smiles on faces, it looked like fans were happy to be back in NatsTown.

Here are a few photos to highlight the event:

Fans were able to tour the clubhouse.

Fans welcomed Ivan "Pudge" Rodriguez

Photos with players

Autographs

Ryan Zimmerman's Awards

Q&A Sessions

Face painting

Batting Cages (Donations are going to Haiti Relief)