For the first time in three years, the Washington Nationals do not have the No. 1 overall pick in MLB's Amateur Draft.  That's a good thing, because unlike in 2009 and 2010, there's not one clear-cut consensus No. 1 talent.  Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper were household names much before the draft even took place, and their selections were only clouded by how much money the Nationals were going to have to pony up to get them signed in the wake of failing to get 2008 first round pick Aaron Crow under contract.

The Nationals own the No. 6 overall pick, along with the No. 23 and No. 34 in compensation for losing Adam Dunn to free agency last off-season.

This year, the pre-draft thinking is that there are a half-dozen players that could go in just about any order in the first six picks of the draft, so the Nats envision one of those players being available to them when they make their selection.

As things stand several hours before the draft (tonight at 7:00 pm), most conventional wisdom has the Pittsburgh Pirates selecting UCLA right-hander Gerrit Cole with the No. 1 overall pick.  Cole is big and has a great pedigree, but has posted just mediocre numbers his junior year and just may be suffering from draft fatigue.

The Seattle Mariners at No. 2 have been linked to Rice 3B Anthony Rendon, but shoulder problems this season have teams wary of the best college bat (and plus-defender) in the draft.

After that, though, it's a total crapshoot.

Danny Hultzen, a left-handed pitcher from Univ. of Virginia (and St. Alban's), is one of the most polished pitchers in the draft, though he doesn't own the upside of some of the power arms in this draft.  He will probably be the quickest to the majors though, with No. 2 starter potential. 

Another college pitcher high on draft boards is UCLA RHP Trevor Bauer.  Bauer had a ridiculous season and has moved up the draft boards accordingly.  But the slight (6'2", 185) righty has a funky delivery and borderline bizarre pre-game routines, and often throws long-toss on days he pitches. He's also had a heavy workload this year, throwing 120 pitches at least five times and has thrown eight straight complete games.

There are three high schoolers in the top of this draft as well, two pitchers and a center fielder.

Dylan Bundy, right-handed pitcher from Oklahoma, has been called the best high school pitcher in this draft with good command of his 95-MPH fastball.  The knock: he's only 6'0" and there's concern he could end up a reliever.  Archie Bradley is another Oklahoma high school pitcher, and at 6'3", 215 he looks more the part.  But he also has a commitment to play QB at Univ. of Oklahoma in the fall.

Perhaps the most intriguing player of the early picks is Kansas high school outfielder Derek (Bubba) Starling.  Starling is 6'4", 180, and appears to be the only true five-star athlete in this draft.  He's another two-sport star and is committed to playing QB and CF at Univ. of Nebraska next year, so his selection will probably come with a big price tag.  Many scouts compare Starling to Josh Hamilton as a high schooler.

There are a few other college arms that round out the Top Ten in this draft, and if the Nats are looking for a signability pick, they could go in that direction.  Alex Meyer (RHP U. of Kentucky), Taylor Jungmann (RHP, U. of Texas), Matt Barnes (RHP, U. of Connecticut), and Jed Bradley (LHP, Ga Tech) are some other options available.

The Nationals have been linked to several of the names above, most prominently Hultzen, Bauer, Starling and Meyer.  Bauer's performance this season has elevated him into the top half-dozen picks and at one point, Hultzen was on Pittsburgh's radar with the No. 1 overall, so it would be surprising to see either fall to the Nats at No. 6 at this point.  Even then, if the Nats have to choose between Hultzen and Starling, many draft pundits still see the Nats taking the five-tool Starling.

Prediction: GM Mike Rizzo has shown a preference in the last several drafts for selecting near MLB-ready college pitchers, so it would be no surprise if he followed suit in this draft, which is heavy with college pitchers early.  But it's hard not to think about Starling lining up next to Bryce Harper in the outfield for the foreseeable future for the Nats. 

I think given the option, Rizzo takes the five-tool Starling and gets his college pitchers with the Nos. 23 and 34 picks later in the first round. There are some mock drafts even having Meyer falling to the No. 23.  There is no protection for the later picks, so whoever Rizzo selects he'll have to feel comfortable he can get them under contract.

What I don't anticipate the Nationals doing is selecting a high school pitcher at No. 6.  If all of Hultzen, Bauer and Starling are gone at that point, I think Rizzo would opt for one of the other college pitchers, starting with the 6'9" Meyer.

We did this last season with varying degrees of success, so we'll try it again.

Feel free to leave your predictions in the comments section, but as always, please refrain from vulgarity when ripping my predictions to shreds.

2011 Record:  The final number comes first.  I've been waiting until rosters were set to make last minute adjustments to estimated playing time before finalizing my win projection.  There's been a lot of movement in the win total number over the last week with all the transactions that GM Mike Rizzo has made in sculpting his Opening Day roster.

First, despite being sent down, I still think Roger Bernadina will get the most playing time in center field for the Nats this year, unless a trade happens to acquire a legitimate center fielder and leadoff man.  Rick Ankiel is injury prone and not great to begin with, and I think The Shark will be swimming again sooner than later.

But the bigger problem of not having a high-OBP guy at the top of the order will haunt the Nats just as it has in their entire history in D.C.

The best chance for improving upon the 69-win season the Nats recorded last year is in the starting rotation, as they'll (hopefully) get a full season from a healthy Jordan Zimmermann, the apparent No. 2 to Stephen Strasburg. 

The Nats think Jason Marquis can give them what they expected out of him last season, John Lannan to provide his consistent ground ball routine, and Livan Hernandez not to regress to his 2008-09 performance.  But I don't see all of those things happening in concert, which would have to happen for the Nats wins to significantly improve.

If Michael Morse gets exposed playing every day for the first time in his career, or Adam LaRoche ends up under the knife to correct his torn rotator cuff, these numbers are off the board completely.  And if they BOTH happen, the Nats are looking at 100 losses again.

As for the defense, Rizzo stated on many occasions he wanted to get more athletic and better defensively this off-season, yet traded and demoted his two fastest, most athletic players in Morgan and Bernadina, giving the center field job to a 31-year old former pitcher and left field to man-without-a-position Michael Morse.  Expect plenty of catchable balls to fall in between them.

I'll officially set my prediction at 68 wins, just like I did last year.

There's just not enough pitching to compete yet.

Biggest Pleasant Surprise?  Wilson Ramos.  The young catcher will get his chance this year and not look back.  Had a dominating winter league and follwed that with a strong spring.  It's his time.

Biggest Disappointment?  Michael Morse.  He's a great story and had a ridiculous spring, but players don't become regulars in the Major Leagues at 29 for a reason. 

I just don't see anything in his history, other than his resemblance to Jayson Werth, that leads me to believe he's going to break out this year any more than he did last season while they were managing his at bats.  If he duplicates last year, I'll be happy and surprised.

I know that's going to make me a bad guy around these parts, and I'll be perfectly happy to have folks tell me they told me so at the end of the year.

Best off-season move:  Signing Jerry Hairston.  He'll platoon with Ankiel in center (and Bernadina later this summer), and serves as insurance for both Ian Desmond and Danny Espinosa.  He's not a world beater, but he is a credible Major League player at three different positions.

Worst off-season move:  Trading three mid- to low-level prospects for Tom Gorzelanny.  He can't throw strikes.  Never has.  I can't imagine Steve McCatty figuring him out now.

Most Critical Decision of the Year?  What's replacing Five Guys at Nats Park?

Seriously though, it's whether or not to exercise the option on manager Jim Riggleman's contract.  We discussed the situation at length last week, but now that the cat is out of the bag, the decision will be looming over NatsTown all season.

Whether you like Riggleman's "smart ball" or not, Rizzo thinks he's put together a team that will compete this year, adding veterans with every spring training decision he made, so if the team doesn't perform to his expectations, it'll be the manager's job on the line.

What are the middle infielders going to do?  I expect Ian Desmond and Danny Espinosa to both continue their career progression.  I have always been high on both of them and continue to be coming into the new season.

I'm not predicting All-Star games, but I think they are both capable of 15-15 seasons, which is pretty sweet out of your double-play combo.  Desmond goes .268/.320/.397 and Espinosa goes .248/.312/.415

As for defense, I'll go out on a limb and say Desmond will cut his errors down to 20-25, and Espinosa will be in the talk for a gold glove, but will lose out to a more veteran player.  But his time will come.

What about Wang?  We asked the same question last year.  At this point, I don't envision ever seeing Chien-Ming Wang take the mound at Nats Park.

Teams Leaders  The DC-IBWA made their predictions a few weeks ago and I posted my answers at the time, but I will now adjust for playing time after spring training.

HR: Ryan Zimmerman, 34

RBI: Adam LaRoche, 98 (if healthy)

SB: Roger Bernadina, 19

Wins: Jordan Zimmerman, 12

Saves: Drew Storen, 18

Starts: John Lannan, 32

More starts (Detwiler/Maya/Gorzelanny): Ross Detwiler, 14

More at bats (Ankiel/Hairston/Cora):  Jerry Hairston

Most catcher at bats:  Wilson Ramos

All-Stars:  One, Ryan Zimmerman

Wins and Place:  68, fourth.

Most important development for 2011?  The successful recovery of Stephen Strasburg from Tommy John surgery.  I said it a few weeks ago and I stick by it:  There is no more important player to this franchise and his successful recovery is paramount to anything else that happens in NatsTown this summer.

It's a 12-18 month recovery process, and everyone will be watching and hoping Strasburg can follow Zimmermann's timetable and return to a major league mound in September.

Will we see Bryce Harper in D.C. this season?  No.  I can't imagine in any way that Harper makes his big league debut this year, short of him hitting .400 with 20 home runs the first two months of the season and the Morse/LaRoche doomsday scenario being in place at that time.

You went the entire post without even mentioning Jayson Werth?  Um...yeah. 

 

Okay, so short of an MVP season Werth won't come close to justifying his contract.  Does that mean if he puts up 25 homers and 75 RBIs in the No. 2 spot that he'll be a huge disappointment?  Probably. 

 

But that's where the money clouds the issue, because that's the player he is.  He benefited greatly by playing his home games in Citizen's Bank park the last few years.  In fact, the last two years he hit 39 homers at CBP and just 24 on the road.  Normalize those numbers for playing his home games at Nats Park, and what you get is a good overall hitter, but not the home run slugger he has been and will be portrayed as.

 

And we won't even get into Rizzo's proclamation about how he thinks Werth will get better with age.

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There you go -- have at them! And remember, have fun this season!  Don't get bogged down with wins and losses, enjoy the baseball for what it is and you'll get more out of it.

On the eve of Opening Day 2010, I'm going to go out on a limb and publish some highly debatable predicitons.  I'd love to hear any feedback you might have, and if you want to leave predicitons of your own in the comments, we can compare when the season is over.

Or, if you just want to rip mine mercilessly anonymously, that's ok too.

2010 Record:  Let's get the big one out of the way.  Honestly, last year's team suffered from such horrendous luck in the first half of the season, it would be almost impossible for this edition not to be better.

The turnaround had less to do with Riggleman taking over for Acta and more to the bullpen normalizing, Josh Willingham playing every day and Nyjer Morgan playing out of his head.

However, I don't think the Nats have made themselves that much better, and certainly not as much as the kool-aid drinkers think. 

The bullpen has more question marks than on the Riddler's costume from the old Batman TV series.  The rotation for the first two months will be Lannan, Marquis and three revolving doors.  Right field will be full of non-OBP slap-and-dashers.  And everyone that prays better tune the big guy up so that Willingham stays healthy, or the five hole will be a black hole.

Morgan won't hit as well as hit did during that six-week stretch last summer.  Guzman has one more year of being an albatross and will eat at bats Desmond should get.  And Dunn's defense at first just isn't going to get better.

All that said, I think this team will manage to make a ten-game or so improvement, which is relatively huge.  I'm setting the bar at 68 wins.

Biggest Pleasant Surprise:  Adam Kennedy.  I was originally against his signing, fearing that it would signal the end of Ian Desmond on the big club.  But as things have shaken out, I think Kennedy will provide decent production and passable defense.

Biggest Disappointment:  Matt Capps.  I don't think he's fully recovered from arm injuries he had two seasons ago in Pittsburgh, and if he leads this team with saves I will be very surprised.  At least it was a one-year deal.  And if he IS leading the team in saves come the trade deadline and he isn't moved...well, I guess that's just status quo.

Honorable Mention:  Ivan Rodriguez.  Anyone hoping for Pudge circa 2004 will be sorely disappointed.

Most Critical Decision of the Year:  To sign, or not sign, Adam Dunn to a long-term deal.  I'm on the record saying the team should move Dunn at the deadline to an AL team for what the going rate will be this year.  I think it's a big mistake to tie up money and a position to a 30-plus player with a skill set that does not age well and plays terrible defense.

That said, I think Rizzo re-signs him.

What's Strasburg Going To Do:  I see Saint Stephen dominating Double-A for five starts, moving up and having much the same success at Triple-A for another 5-6 starts (in five/six inning chunks) and getting the call just after Memorial Day when his "Super Two" status will pass, thus allowing the Nats to keep him from becoming a free agent a year early and adding another arbitration year.

Of course, if he becomes the pitcher we all think he will, the Nats should tie him up long-term before it gets to that.  But that's another story.

Bottom line once he reaches the bigs:  I think he'll get around 15 carefully managed starts, average around eight strikeouts per nine innings, and be prone to the gopher ball.

What About Wang?:  I think Wang will return around the all-star break (he was put on the 60-day DL today) and eventually look serviceable.  He never blew anyone way, and I think he'll be better next year than this year.  But I think he does come back and does contribute.  It could turn out to be Rizzo's shrewdest move.

Team Leaders

HRs:  Dunn with 41

RBIs:  Zimmerman with 105

Steals:  Morgan with 40 (and 15 caught stealing)

Wins:  Lannan with 12

Losses:  Marquis with 14

Saves:  Bruney with 18

Lastly, Looking Ahead:  I think Desmond gets 450 at bats, has 15 homers and 20 steals, and probably 30 errors.  Live with it this year, he'll be worth it.

Jordan Zimmermann gets four starts at the end of the season and reminds everyone why they're so high on him.

Drew Storen comes up with Strasburg at Memorial Day and initially is used in the sixth-seventh inning.  Capps and Bruney both keep getting save opportunities until the trade deadline, then Storne takes over.  I'll say he gets eight saves this year and is annointed for next season.

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There you go, some bold and sure to be wrong predicitons for 2010.  Please make sure when you rip me in the comments you refrain from vulgarity.

Seriously, it might not sound like I'm looking forward to covering the team this year with some of the dour comments and predictions.  Nothing could be further from the truth.  I'm looking forward to this season so much it hurts.

But I'm also trying to take a realistic outlook to what's going on and not just relying on hope and marketing to believe this season will be much different than last season.  It won't be.  But there is hope coming.  You'll just have to look carefully for it this season, and especially early on.