Yesterday, the Washington Nationals traded three minor league players to the Chicago Cubs for Tom Gorzelanny, a 28-year old left-handed pitcher.  For the last two seasons, Gorzelanny has been shuttled between the starting rotation and the bullpen by the Cubs.  The pitching-starved Pittsburgh Pirates, where he was a former second round draft pick and had his best season in 2007 going 14-10 with a 3.88 ERA in 32 starts, sent him to the minors before trading him to the Cubs.

He hasn't come close to matching the performance of his breakout year over a full season since.

Last year, Gorzy made 29 appearances, 23 as a starter.  He was relegated to the pen in June after nine starts, going 2-5 while racking up a 3.66 ERA over 51.2 IP.  He walked 20 and struck out 53 in those nine starts.  He regained a starting job at the end of June and fared much worse than his earlier stint, going 5-4, but with an ERA of 4.60, with 42 BBs and 59 Ks in 78.1 IPs.

It's amazing how much some Major League player evaluators still look at won-loss record.  Gorzy lost his job with a 2-5 record early on despite pitching pretty well, but stayed in the rotation later in the season because his team was winning games behind him despite his crummy pitching.

This is the enigma that Tom Gorzelanny is.

In his six-year career, he has walked 4.1 per nine innings.  That's lousy.  His inability to throw strikes has kept him from becoming the "dependable" starter he's going to be billed as coming to the Nationals.  He's anything but.

Here's the weird thing:  his strikeout rate has widely fluctuated throughout his career.  Here are his K rates since 2006: 5.8, 6.0, 5.7, 9.0, 7.9.  It works out to a career average of 6.6.  Not great, but not Lannan-esque.

So which pitcher is he?  The nine per nine, or the six per nine?  It makes a big difference, since he walks so many.

In 2009 and 2010 -- the two years he posted his best K rates -- he spent a lot of time in the bullpen.  But I was surprised about his K rate breakdown though.  In 2009, his K rate was higher as as starter (10.2) than as a reliever (6.5).  In 2010, it wasn't that pronounced (7.8 as starter, 9.9 as reliever).

So if his K rate is actually getting better as it seems to be, why is he still posting such atrocious ERAs?  Since his breakout year of 2007, his ERAs have been 6.66, 5.55 and 4.09.  Those numbers are trending down as his K rate has increased, but the bottom line is he walks too many and gives up too many hits.  It's not a difficult formula.

Dave Cameron of Fangraphs.com published on this very subject yesterday, in his article "What Is Tom Gorzelanny?".  He's as confused as anyone else. 

In total, we have a guy who has had good ERAs with bad peripherals and bad ERAs with good peripherals, and in the only year that his process and results lined up, he was one of the worst pitchers in baseball. Despite good minor league results, his stuff is just alright, and he’s not the kind of pitcher who looks to have significant untapped upside. With his repertoire, throwing strikes should be a key, except he got his career back on track in a season where his walk rate was 113th out of 115 major league pitchers who threw at least 130 innings.

Great.

If you look at his ratios, they are all in line with MLB averages, except for the walks.  This seems to be the case of Nats GM Mike Rizzo thinking he can fix this player, reducing his walks and turning him into a solid, middle of the rotation pitcher.  Two teams have failed at it so far.

The prospects that the Nats sent away aren't really the big problem with this trade.  My point, which I took a bit of debate on yesterday when discussing the deal on twitter and other message boards, was that this player isn't really the type of player to be trading any assets away for. 

The Cubs traded for Matt Garza, another object of Rizzo's affection, making Gorzy expendable.  It's evident Cubs GM Jim Hendry didn't even want Gorzy in his bullpen, doing the player a "solid" by trading him to a team that will keep him as a starter, the players preferred role.

It's entirely possible Gorzelanny might even have been waived during spring training.

Trading young players for old is a strategy that contending teams can employ to shore up holes where necessary in order to compete.  The only thing the Nationals will compete for this season is avoiding last place and 100 losses again, and while Tom Gorzelanny MIGHT help them accomplish that, it's hard to envision any other benefit.

Tom Gorzelanny is not a key part of a rotation of a contending team, he's a modern day swingman.  But he'll be billed as a veteran, dependable starter in his press conference.

The good thing is he's not expensive.  He's still arbitration-eligible, but with last year's base salary of $800,000, he'll only be due a modest raise even if it goes to a hearing.

The biggest loser in all this:  Ross Detwiler.  Trading for a veteran left-handed starter, to go along with incumbant John Lannan, will make his job of cracking the rotation next to impossible.

The other thing that NatsTown should take away from this: Stop Overvaluing Nats Prospects. The critics of this trade are dwelling on the wrong things.  Burgess, Morris and Hicks are all flawed prospects.  Burgess has too big of a swing, Morris' fastball is too flat, and Hicks hasn't grown into his frame (yet, he's only 20).

None are can't miss prospects.  Burgess and Morris were just barely in the Nats' Top 20 prospects by Baseball America, and Hicks didn't even make the list.

But Burgess has been billed by the organization as a "building block" since he was drafted (even mentioned by name in the infamous "Letter to the Fans of the Washington Nationals" after the firing of former manager Manny Acta in July of 2009).  And Morris and Hicks were both touted Rizzo draft picks.

I suppose when all the news about these players is coming from Nationals management, fans can't help but get excited about the younger players.  But you have to look past the press releases and read some independent analysis before making judgments about player value.

Michael Burgess lunges at an outside pitch last July as a member of the Potomac Nationals. (C.Nichols/Nats News Network)

According to multiple sources, the Washington Nationals have traded three "mid-level" minor league prospects to the Chicago Cubs for 28 year old left handed pitcher Tom Gorzelanny.

Sources also have said two of the three prospects are OF Michael Burgess and RHP A.J. Morris.

Gorzelanny has pitched for the Pirates and Cubs in his six year Major League career, and has bounced between the rotation and bullpen most of his career.  He owns a 4.69 ERA and 1.496 WHIP with a 6.6 Ks per nine innings, but also walks 4.1 per nine.

Gorzelanny became expendable to the Cubs after they traded for Matt Garza last week from the Tampa Bay Rays.

Burgess is a power hitting corner outfielder, and Morris a strong right-hander that projects as a No. 5 starter or bullpen arm.

This move might help the 2011 rotation, but Gorzelanny is not a long-term answer, and certainly a far cry from the "top of the rotation" starter GM Mike Rizzo wanted to acquire this off-season.

Gorzelanny is arbitration eligible and is due a raise from his $800,000 salary from last season.

He will compete with Livan Hernandez, John Lannan, Jason Marquis, Jordan Zimmermann, Yunesky Maya, Ross Detwiler, J.D. Martin, Garrett Mock and others for a position in the starting rotation in spring training.

We'll have more information and analysis as this deal becomes finalized.

Today at Nats Park, with snow still covering the field where shadows keep the sun away, the Washington Nationals introduced first baseman Adam LaRoche as the newest member of the team.  LaRoche signed a two-year deal worth $16 million, plus a team option on a third year last week.

The oft-traveled left-handed 31-year old joins his fifth Major League team in his eighth big league season.

LaRoche brings remarkably consistent -- if not excellent -- offensive numbers.  He's hit 25 home runs in each of his last three seasons and hit between .261 and .285 in each of his big league seasons.  He averages .271/.339/.488 with 26 home runs and 93 RBIs per 162 games throughout his career.

In addition, he brings a solid glove to his position, a point of emphasis this off-season from General Manager Mike Rizzo.  "He was a player we identified early in the process as a guy that fit perfectly for our ballclub; offensively, defensively, left side of the plate, great character on and off the field, good in the dugout, good in the clubhouse, good in the community."

"It's great to be here," LaRoche said after modelling his crisp, home white No. 25 uniform. "I love the direction this team is going and what Mike [Rizzo] has done so far. I think this is a great start, it's gonna be a fun year."

LaRoche talked about the influence that current -- and former -- Nationals had in convincing him that Washington was the place he should sign. 

"I talked to Matt Capps a little bit.  Great guy, who I have a ton of respect for, and he said it's a great place to play.  Adam Dunn, same way, he was here a couple years and he said 'the direction they're going from the front office to field operations, coaching staff, everything is first class' and totally recommended it.  When you hear that from guys that have been around, guys you respect, and guys that have been here, played here, it makes the decision pretty easy." 

LaRoche also spoke about the pride he takes in fielding his position well.  "I've always said that hitting is streaky. You're gonna have your hot streaks, you're gonna have your slumps.  Defense is -- especially I think in the infield in my position -- I have a chance to bail guys out a lot. I can make 'em look really bad or I can make 'em look really good and vice verse. It's something I've always taken pride in.

I love when those guys make a great play and an errant throw to be able to bail 'em out and potentially save some runs.  I think pitchers appreciate it just as much as the guy that threw the ball in the dirt. Obviously it helps them, saves them some pitches, saves some runs and ultimately win some games.

It's something I work hard on, and I like the fact that I can pick those guys up as much as anything."

The two position players Rizzo has acquired this off-season, LaRoche and Jayson Werth, both bring a more complete package than the players they replace in the order: Adam Dunn and Josh Willingham. 

Rizzo hopes the offense will be a wash, but if not he's confident that the defensive upgrade and overall athleticism -- he mentioned the ability of both players to go from first to third or score from second on a single -- will more than make up for the home runs lost with Dunn's departure.

Time will tell if Rizzo's recipe will cook.  But it's his soup.

Nats GM Mike Rizzo hasn't landed a pitcher this off-season...yet. (C.Nichols/Nats News Network)

Washington Nationals General Manager Mike Rizzo stated in the fall his top priority this off-season was to acquire a "top of the rotation" starting pitcher for 2011.  The free agent class was remarkably weak in starting pitching this year, and when rumors started floating that it would take $20 million a year to land Cliff Lee, Rizzo conceded that perhaps his lofty goal was unattainable.

Lee eventually signed his lucrative deal with the Phillies, though he reportedly left money on the table to do so.

That left Rizzo to go after a second tier of pitchers, all of whom would have seriously upgraded the Nats staff, widely regarded as one of the worst in Major League Baseball.

Ted Lilly. Javier Vazquez. Hiroki Kuroda. Jon Garland. Jake Westbrook. Jorge de la Rosa. Aaron Harang. Even Brandon Webb.  All second-level starters that would have slotted into the top of the Nats rotation this season, and fit very nicely behind Stephen Strasburg and hopefully Jordan Zimmermann to form a quality rotation for 2012.

The last "impact" free agent starter left standing?  Carl Pavano, and he appears to be headed back to Minnesota.

All went somewhere else.  The Nats were in on some, not on others.  But none are here.

That left Rizzo to pursue a trade for a starter.  He was hot and heavy for Zack Greinke, but lost out when Greinke decided Milwaukee was a more attractive option than Washington, D.C, even when Rizzo had a deal in place and reportedly offered Greinke a boatload of cash in a contract extension.

His next pursuit: Tampa Bay's Matt Garza.  But Garza's been shipped off to the Cubs now, for a decent package of prospects.

***Let me be perfectly clear at this point:  I was not in favor of sacrificing a huge part of the Nationals' future to acquire a starting pitcher via trade.  The prospects that would have been needed to sacrifice for Greinke or Garza would have crippled the Nats franchise for years.  They just aren't deep enough to make those types of trades yet.  Not that it hasn't kept Rizzo from trying.

All of which leaves Rizzo and the Nats at the unenviable position of signing a starter off the scrap heap of what's left in the free agent pool (Jeff Francis? Jeremy Bonderman? Dave Bush?) or (shudder) go into 2011 with the same crew as last year.

Right now, the Nats depth chart at starter is: Livan Hernandez, John Lannan, Jordan Zimmermann, Jason Marquis, and a pool of candidates that will rotate in and out as the fifth starter, led presumably by Yunesky Maya.

How Hernandez did what he did last year (3.66 ERA) mystifies.  In 2008 and 2009 he went 6.05 and 5.44.  Soft-tossing Lannan was sent back to Double-A for a few weeks last year and has a decidely limited ceiling.  Zimmermann is coming off Tommy John surgery and hopefully returns to the promise of his rookie year.  Marquis was indescribably bad (6.60 in just 13 starts) last season.  Maya has dominated Winter League but hasn't played competitively in over two years after defecting and has a flat fastball to go with his array of junk.

After that, it's the same names we're heard for a couple years now, trying to stick at the Major League level:  Garrett Mock coming back from a cervical spine issue.  J.D. Martin, returning from his own back injury.  Ross Detwiler and his hip problems from lousy mechanics.  Chein-Ming Wang and his "football" injury.

Underwhelming.

The rest down on the farm are all too young (or not qualified) to make an impact this year.

Rizzo went out and made adjustments to positions he thought were trouble spots last season.  He acquired Jayson Werth (for the GNP of Austria) to man right field until Bryce Harper ascends, and waited until Adam LaRoche fell to him to get a better glove at first base. And he picked up a couple bullpen arms to add to the competition there.

But he's failed to upgrade the one area on the team that needed it most, despite his apparent acknowledgement and involvement.

The "pitching and defense" mantra only goes so far if you don't have the first part.

I do not have a vote in the BBWAA process.  I do, however, belong to two organizations that also vote on Hall of Fame "suggestions", the Internet Baseball Writers Association of America and the Baseball Bloggers Alliance.

Last year the IBWAA elected Bert Blyleven and this year included Roberto Alomar.

This season, the BBA elected both Blyleven and Alomar.

You'd think us internet geeks would be better sussing out qualified candidates and not make them wait years before we mock-induct them, but it looks like the some of the same biases that traditional media carry over to the internet media as well.

You are entitled to believe anything you want, but I am of the opinion that enough players were using performance enhancing drugs during the time frame that all of these players were active that PEDs (steroids, human growth hormone, amphtamines, etc) were part of the accepted baseball landscape and it's fair to evaluate these players against their peers without asterick.

So without further ado, here was my ballot:

Roberto Alomar.  The best second baseman of his generation and one of the top five of all-time. .300/.371/.443. 210 HR, 474 SB. 12 consecutive ASG, 10 GG, 4 SS.

Jeff Bagwell.  Consistantly elite production for 15 seasons. 449 HR. .297/.408/.540. ROY, MVP, 4 ASG, 1 GG, 3 SS.

Bert Blyleven.  Fifth all-time in Ks.  60 career shutouts.  287 wins. 242 complete games. 2 ASG.

Barry Larkin.  Took over mantel of best NL shortstop from Ozzie Smith.  .295/.371/.444. 198 HR, 379 SB. MVP, 12 ASG, 3 GG, 9 SS.

Mark McGwire. Greatest power hitter of his generation. 583 HR. .263/.394/.588. ROY, 12 ASG, 1 GG, 3 SS.

Dale Murphy. The best player in the game for six out eight years in 80s. 398 HR, 161 SB. .265/.346/.469. 2 consecutive MVPs.  7 ASG, 5 GG, 4 SS.

Tim Raines. Second greatest leadoff hitter of all-time.  .294/.385/.425, 170 HR, 113 3B, 808 SB. 7 ASG, 1 SS.

Rafael Palmeiro.  One of four players in history to reach both "Magic Numbers". .288/.371/.515, 3020 hits, 569 HR. 4 ASG, 3 GG, 2 SS.

Alan Trammell.  Fantastic defensive player and leader with good stick overshadowed in prime.  .285/.352/.415, 185 HR, 236 SB.  6 ASG, 4 GG, 3 SS.

With the Washington Nationals signing of 1B Adam LaRoche yesterday, the Nats have essentially solidified their lineup for next season.  Really.  All that's left is to pick up a right-handed hitting utility player for the bench.

Despite all the national media insisting the Nats are still "in" on Carl Pavano, GM Mike Rizzo told Tom Boswell the other day the Nats haven't spoken with the free agent starter since the Winter Meetings. 

"I hear we are 'the finalist' along with the Twins," said Rizzo, acerbically. "We've never spoken to Pavano and we haven't talked to his agent since the winter meetings."

So unless Rizzo can pull off a trade for his coveted front of the rotation starter, the Nats are probably done acquiring impact players this off-season.

Here's how the roster looks at this point.

LINEUP

CF Nyjer Morgan.  Get used to it.

SS Ian Desmond.  Look for his error total to drop this season due to maturity, not 1B defense.

3B Ryan Zimmerman.  Forget protection, Zim is merely entering the prime of his career.

1B Adam LaRoche.  Not a traditional cleanup hitter, but breaks up a bunch of right-handed bats.

RF Jayson Werth.  Expected to be "The Man" for the first time in his career. Is he up to it?

LF Roger Bernadina. Left-handed hitting part of left field platoon, with better defense.

2B Danny Espinosa.  Will win a Gold Glove if he gets 500 at bats.

C Pudge Rodriguez.  Trudging his way toward 3000 hits.

BENCH

OF Michael Morse.  Will platoon with Bernie.  Good pop off bench. Suited for this role.

OF Rick Ankiel.  Nyjer Morgan insurance.  Can play all three OF spots credibly.  Great throwing arm.

INF Alberto Gonzalez.  The General plays every infield spot--best infield arm on the team. Can't hit a lick.

C Jesus Flores or Wilson Ramos.  The most interesting battle in spring training.

TBD Do the Nats use the last position player spot on PH Deluxe Matt Stairs, or find another utility guy?

STARTERS

RHSP Livan Hernandez.  Livo is your opening day starter.  Book it.

LHSP John Lannan.  Hopefully he really did figure something out during his minor league stint. K rate up in second half.

RHSP Jordan Zimmermann.  A full off-season working out instead of re-habbing and normal spring will do him wonders.

RHSP Jason Marquis.  His spot to lose.  Nats must hope he resembles old self and can flip him at deadline.

TBD Final starter spot open to competition. Maya (DWL Pitcher of the Year), Gaudin, Mock, Martin, Detwiler all candidates

BULLPEN

CL Drew Storen.  In reality, Manager Jim Riggleman will probably start with committee.

RHSU Tyler Clippard.  Hopefully being overworked last season wion't have negative impact, but watch for injury.

LHSU  Sean Burnett.  Relievers are volatile, but Burnett was very solid last season.

RHRP Craig Stammen.  Does what he's told.

LHRP Doug Slaten.  He's still with the team?

RHRP Henry Rodriguez.  100-MPH fastball will see plenty of innings.

RHRP Collin Balester.  Was impressive in late 2010 callup, as long as he doesn't make a habit of falling off the mound.

Multiple sources confirm the Washington Nationals have signed free agent first baseman Adam LaRoche to a two ear deal, reportedly for $16 million total.

LaRoche is a left-handed hitting eight-year veteran who averages .271/.339/.488 with 25 homers and 93 RBIs per 162 games throughout his career.

LaRoche has hit exactly 25 home runs each of the last three seasons, including in 2010 with Arizona.  His slash line of .261/.320/.468 were all below career norms however.

The 30 year old is considered a good fielder, though advanced metrics don't really bear that out, as his UZR/150 ranked him in the bottom third of qualifying first baseman last season.

LaRoche was the "last man standing", as one-by-one the Nats watched first base candidates sign elsewhere this off-season, including Carlos Pena with the Chicago Cubs and Derrick Lee with the Baltimore Orioles.

The Nationals lineup is now pretty well set, as LaRoche will slide into the fourth or fifth spot in the lineup with Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth in the heart of the order.

We'll have more analysis and opinion on the Nats latest signing tomorrow.