What to do with Bedard?

Posted by Dave Nichols | Tuesday, November 06, 2007 | 0 comments »

there's lots of talk here about what to do with Bedard. what it boils down to, in my esteemed opinion, is Bedard's first half of 2008. i think the FO is hoping 1 of 2 things happen:

1) Bedard is lights out and someone overpays for him at the trade deadline, or
2) he starts slow like he often does and signs a lucrative, but not crippling extension.

if you look at his stats (oh no! STATS!), his lifetime ERA in April is 4.47. that's pretty bad for someone considered to be a staff "ace". he's managed to win ballgames despite that ERA, maybe a testament to the O's not giving up in the season yet. anyway, maybe he struggles a little bit, his agent gets antsy and decides to cut a deal early to everyone's benefit. probably wishful thinking.

also, another thing to take into account, and i guess i knew this but didn't realize how pronounced it was, but he's never really pitched a full season. 2006 he had 33 starts, this year 29. if you look at his appearances broken down by month, it looks like he's good for a trip to the DL every June, September, or both. what happens if he strains a hammy that first week of interleague play in June? how could that affect his value?

while he's got more talent than any lefty not named Santana, he may need to put a full season of dominance up before he'll command the salary--or trade value--that many in the Baltimore media or blogosphere believe he'll garner.

i'm not discounting his talent, or current value to the Orioles as the most valuable piece of the puzzle, whichever way they end up going. i guess what i am saying is i think the first half of 2008 is going to be a chess match between the Orioles and Bedard, and frankly the other GMs, and should be very interesting to watch. i think that there's still something to be proven on many different fronts.

bottom line, Bedard will be 29 at the start of the season. his destiny will be forged very quickly at the beginning of the season.