The Numbers Are In

Posted by Dave Nichols | Tuesday, July 22, 2008 | , | 0 comments »

Bill Ladson at has the terms of Cristian Guzman's brand spanking new two-year contract:

Nationals shortstop Cristian Guzman has decided to forgo free agency and agreed to terms on a two-year $16 million contract extension. Guzman will make $8 million in 2009 and '10.

In my humble opinion, this is about $2MM per year more than he would have recieved on the open market. Most folks around here are overvaluing Guzman. With the "token" all-star selection and all the talk about leading the league in hits (and at bats, and plate appearances), he's still just a league average SS with below average defensive range and a lifetime OBP of .305.

I realize the Nats have to have someone to play SS, and he's the devil we know. But $16 MM for two years is $4-6 MM too much. But it ain't my money. It will be interesting to see what Orlando Hudson signs for during the off-season and compare the two. Because that's what today's moves costs us. By trading for Bonifacio and re-signing Guz, the team is telling us "We're not playing the free agent game next year. We see Hudson and Furcal and all the other middle infielders available, and we're decided that we're going to stick with Guz and a second baseman that isn't arbitration eligible for four years. Oh, and we'll bring Fat Ronnie back cause nobody else wants him."

All this being said, if Guz is hitting #2 or #8 next year, and he does what he's doing this year, I think the Nats would be perfectly happy. Now, if he's got to lead off again...that's a completely different story.