Where I bore you with some statistics with arbitrary end points...
- In his last 133 plate apperances (dating back to Aug. 7 -- 33 games), Adam Dunn is hitting .205/.323/.375 with 4 HRs and 14 RBIs. He's struck out 42 times against 19 walks. That's a pace over 162 games for 225 Ks. Eleven of his 23 hits over that time frame have been for extra bases so he has that going for him.
- In the ten games since the brawl, Nyjer Morgan has hit .297/.350/.351 in 41 plate appearances.
- Since his recall Aug. 1, John Lannan has looked like his old self, only better. In eight starts, he's gone 5-3 with a 3.08 ERA. The difference? His K/BB rate is 35/9 (again, in eight starts). His first 14 games? He struck out 24 and walked 35. He's still giving up his share of base hits as a "pitch to contact" guy, but there are much fewer walked batters to get driven in these days. He's also pitched into the seventh inning four of his last six starts.
- Since the calendar flipped to September, Bernie is 6-for-38 with three walks, zero extra-bases and three RBIs. That makes his slash line .158/.214/.158. Ouch. Bigger sample, you say? Since Aug. 1, it's .228/.289/.360 in 150 plate appearances with 30 Ks against 11 BBs. Think Roger Berndina is wearing down as the season progesses? Or have pitchers figured him out?
- Careful what you wish for: Since the All-Star break, Livan Hernandez' ERA is 4.86. Batters are hitting him at a .293/.344/.406 clip in 18 starts.
"In his last 133 plate apperances (dating back to Aug. 7 -- 33 games), Adam Dunn is hitting .205/.323/.375 with 4 HRs and 14 RBIs. He's struck out 42 times against 19 walks. That's a pace over 162 games for 225 Ks. Eleven of his 23 hits over that time frame have been for extra bases so he has that going for him."
He's just making his case for a big long term contract. You know, like Soriano did. Oh, wait. Maybe not. What exactly is it again that makes him think he deserves a four year deal?
Anon: Dunn is a very interesting case study.
his backers will tell you Dunn has hit 38 or more homers the last six consecutive seasons.
then, his detractors will tell you Dunn has collapsed the last two Septembers, his home runs have gone down each of the last three seasons and he’s on pace for a lifetime low OBP.
both are correct. guessing which trend will continue is the key to this negotiation.
Two years ago, Dunn could say he'd hit 40 HR for five straight years, and those other things could not be said against him. He couldn't get a four year deal then, so why would anyone give him one now?
Anon: the Nats certainly hope you're right that no one will want to offer him a 4-year deal, since that's what's keeping him from re-signing here. my guess is that one of the AL teams (NYY or CWS, most likely) offer him a four-year deal to DH. then, it'll be up to Dunn whether to take a shorter contract to continue to play in the field. just a guess.
Dunn's stats this year show him to be in a definite decline. That makes him look more and more like a DH perhaps within a year? One can blame that on losing Willingham and Riggleman's idiosyncratic lineup cards f ... still he should have a better OBP than he has right now.
He DOES have the most extra base hits and RBI's on a last place team. But, right now he's at 34 home runs with around 20 games to play. He won't hit 40 this year. He many not hit 38 as he did last year.