Over at MASN.com last week, Ben Goessling had some interesting ideas about improving Major League Baseball's playofffs and bettering the game as a whole. You should definitely check out his thoughts and the comments to his post in conjunction with this column.

Ben's inspiration for his post was the fact that the cruddy Monday Night Football game between Tennessee and Jacksonville outdrew the Cliff Lee playoff masterpiece.

And yesterday, a radio host in San Diego threw out a little nugget about realignment in Major League Baseball.  I haven't seen or heard this anywhere else, nor has anyone I've been able to talk to.  But it's still interesting to think about.

Man, I love this debate.

I wrote my college senior thesis (remember, that was in 1989) for my sport and society class on expansion, relocation and the business of baseball. The two things I enjoy most in life are baseball and telling people how they should do things. It's the perfect combination.

So since the dialogue has been started, here are my ideas for improving baseball and restoring its prominence on America's sporting landscape.

Are all these ideas the best in the world? Maybe not. Too much of baseball is run by dollar signs and not common sense. The rest is run by traditionalists and close-minded thinkers. But it would be a much more fair place to watch baseball if these ideas were adopted.
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1) Eliminate divisions and return to the two-league format. Divisions were created because of expensive travel costs and the need to gin up rivalries for commerce. Neither is a factor anymore.

There are time-honored traditional rivalries that will withstand the elimination of the division format, and if the rivals continue to play in the same league they'll still play those rivals -- only a few times less than they do now -- making those games that much more special.

We all know the unbalanced schedule is in place so that MLB can feature 19 Yankees-Red Sox games a season spread out over four networks all season long. Eliminating a couple of those series isn't going to do any damage. In fact, under my plan more teams will get a chance to play and host the two biggest revenue-drivers in the league.

Returning to the league format does a couple of beneficial things. First, it allows for balanced scheduling (which I'll address below). It's the only way of ensuring a regular season produces the best teams to go to the playoffs.

Also, we'll have to move an N.L. team (back) to the A.L. so that we have an equal number of teams in each league, which is necessary for playoff implications. It's not fair that a 14-team league gets the same number of playoff teams a 16 team league does.

Next, it mitigates the financial advantage that the teams with the largest payrolls have.

Right now, the Yankees and Red Sox get to play non-contenders Baltimore and Toronto 19 times a season; Philly gets to play the Nats that many times. By spreading the competition out and expanding the playoffs (see below), it gives the traditional cellar dwellars in divisions dominated by large-payroll teams more of an opportunity to compete, and allows us to find out if the Yankees and Red Sox (and Rays, for that matter) are really that good or are feasting on poorly run ballclubs unfairly based simply on geography.

In addition, teams in the N.L. Central have to fight it out with five other teams in their division, while the A.L. West only has three division competitors. It's just not set up fairly. Leveling the playing field, by creating more competition and lessening the impact of unbridaled spending, should be the primary goal in any discussion about bettering Major League Baseball.

2) Institute true balanced schedules. Now that we have an uneven number of teams in each league, we'll have to change the way interleague play is factored in. My idea: Play each team in your league (14 others) ten games for a total of 140 games. That leaves 22 games for interleague (Nats played 18 interleague games last season).

Play a three- and four-game series against a "Geographic Rival" (Yankees-Mets, Cubs-White Sox, Nats-O's, etc.) for seven games, which leaves 15 games (five three-games series) to spread out among teams in the other league in an every-third-year cyclical, similar to how it is now.

With an uneven number of teams in each league, we'll have to have an interleague series going on at all times. Outrageous, you say? Eh, I'm numb to it by now.

The schedule-makers will all have ulcers, but that's why they invented computers.

3) Expand the number of playoff teams. Now that we have two 15-team leagues, we can send six teams in each league to the playoffs. That number is still right in line with the other sports without cheesing off the traditionalists.

Well, except Joe Morgan. His head will explode.

The teams that finish first and second in each league get a bye, teams three through six play a best of three at the higher seeds' park the Tuesday-Thursday immediately after the season. Then start the second round on Saturday, giving the top two teams five days off after the regular season, conveniently skipping each starter just once, and giving the survivor of the three-game series a day (or two) off as well.

Then compact the second and third rounds with one off day for each series. That's all you get in the regular season generally.

Reducing the off-days that much further forces teams, especially in the League Championship Series, to use their full rotation, one of my big pet peeves about the current playoff format. Let's make the playoffs about which teams are better, not who has the best three starters.

To take a week off the regular season because of the expanded playoffs, mandate Sunday double-headers once a month.

4) Start World Series games no later than 7:00 pm eastern time. Unless you want the league to die a slow, horrible death since no one under the age of 16 can stay up late enough to watch the end of a World Series game now. Sorry West Coasters.

5) Either eliminate or adopt the DH in both leagues. I don't really care which, but it's silly that in this day and age half of the teams in the Majors play with different rules than the other. It also adds to the competitive fairness come World Series time.

6) Base World Series home field advantage on regular season record. Even a dummy knows this is a good idea.
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Riggleman Returns for 2011: Does It Matter?

Posted by Dave Nichols | Wednesday, October 27, 2010 | , , | 10 comments »

"Sometimes when the same person keeps giving the message, it starts to fall on deaf ears." -- Jim Riggleman, on his post-game meeting after a 6-5 loss to the Marlins on Sept. 11.

Photo by Cheryl Nichols/Nats News Network
In the grand scheme of things, does it matter?

The Washington Nationals officially announced yesterday that field manager Jim Riggleman would be retained for the 2011 season, fulfilling the final year of his two-year contract.  Basically, the Nats announced that they were not exercising their contractual option to buy out the second year of Riggleman's contract for a measly $100,000.

They are sticking with Riggs, at least to start next season.  There was no mention (nor even any whispers) of an extension, no organizational "vote of confidence" -- the press release didn't have a single quote in it at all.

Nothing.

Cheryl Nichols/Nats News Network
You know what else it didn't include?  Riggleman's record as a manager.

It mentions that he has managed parts of 11 Major League seasons, but no mention of his performance in those 11 seasons.

Let me lay it out for you:  In the past 100 years, no one has managed more games with a lower winning percentage than Nationals manager Jim Riggleman.  In 11 years, his winning percentage is .442.  How bad is that?  Based on a 162 game schedule, it's 71-91.

But how much does it really matter?

Nobody in their right mind thinks the Nats can contend next season.  There are still too many holes in the roster, not enough talent coming out of the minor leagues yet, not enough money from ownership to invest in multiple Major League players in positions of need.

Would a different manager be able to coax a few more wins out of the talent on hand next season?  Run differential said the Nats should have won 72 games last season instead of the 69 they ended up with.  Is Riggleman a three-win difference-maker?  Those types of things are very difficult to measure.

What we do know is that the Nats continue to be one of the worst defensive teams in the majors.  They are also one of the worst base running teams in the majors. 

And the team had discipline problems all season long, particularly from their center fielder, who started his melt-down with a glove-throwing incident turning a tough catch into an inside-the-park home run in June and ended with an eight game suspension for initiating contact with an unsuspecting catcher, inciting a brawl in Florida, and taunting fans on his way off the field WWE-style in September.

Cheryl Nichols/Nats News Network
Could some of Nyjer Morgan's antics been curbed early if Riggleman had disciplined him for the glove-spiking against the Orioles, as so many fans wished had happened?  Who knows?  But the Morgan drama was one that was allowed to linger all season long.  Do you think Tony LaRussa, who Riggleman respects so much, would have put up with that stuff?  Hardly.  He's running one of his best players out of town because he thinks he doesn't try hard enough.

Morgan once again led the league in caught stealing, yet Riggleman never put up a stop sign.  "That's Nyjer's game, I can't take that away from him," Riggs said after a loss to Florida when Morgan attempted to steal with two outs and the pitcher hitting behind him.

If the player has that little situational awareness, it is absolutely the manager's duty to make those decisions for him.

And what about the now-forgotten trip to the radio booth for Adam Dunn -- DURING a game?  Forget about potentially needing Dunn off the bench in the fourth inning or whatever it was.  Isn't it at least a little disrespectful to not even notify your manager that you're leaving the bench and riding up a public elevator during a game to talk to the opposing team's radio guy -- a conversation much more suited for around the batting cages during batting practice, than during the middle of a game?

Think Joe Torre would have let that fly?  Think if Matt Kemp left the bench to go say "hi" to Jon Miller and Joe Morgan, Torre wouldn't have benched Kemp for a month?

Cheryl Nichols/Nats News Network
How about the way Riggleman yanked Drew Storen around at the end of the season?  Complaints from starting pitchers about being lifted too early?  The constant tipping of the cap to opposing pitchers shutting down the vaunted Nationals offense?  The unnecessary double-swithcing, sacrificing and hit-and running?

If you want to look hard enough, there are things to quibble about with every manager; they all have their quirks.  Riggleman's stand out though because they feed into what are prolonged perceived problems with this organization:  poor fielding, poor base running and lack of accountability.

In the long run though, it really doesn't matter that much if Riggleman is manager for 2011.  They are a team that isn't going to compete for anything meaningful.  If the GM is the one that's ultimately in charge of young players getting playing time, there's no harm done.

But if the talent alone shows the progress that GM Mike Rizzo thinks it will, the team would do well to examine their options at the end of next season when Riggleman's contract expires.

Nationals Officially Retain Manager Jim Riggleman

Posted by Dave Nichols | Tuesday, October 26, 2010 | , | 0 comments »

Earlier this summer, GM Mike Rizzo defended his manager, saying he expected to retain Jim Riggleman as manager for next season.  But the Washington Nationals organization had failed to formalize it during the season. 


Today, they took that necessary step, issuing a press release announcing that Riggleman will indeed return to manage the Washington Nationals for 2011.  The entirety of the release is below:
The Washington Nationals today announced that field manager Jim Riggleman will return in 2011. Nationals Executive Vice President of Baseball Operations and General Manager Mike Rizzo made the announcement.

In 2010 under Riggleman, the Nationals increased their win total from 59 to 69. Washington’s 10-game improvement tied for the fourth-best in MLB this season and trailed only San Diego (+15), Cincinnati (+13) and Tampa Bay (+12).

Riggleman’s third season as Nationals skipper will be his 19th as a big league manager or coach, 17th in the National League. He has managed parts of 11 Major League seasons with Washington (2009-present), Seattle (2008), Chicago-NL (1995-99) and San Diego (1992-94).

The 57 year-old Riggleman was named the Nationals’ third field manager on Nov. 12, 2009. He first assumed the helm of the Nationals as interim manager on July 14, 2009.

Riggleman grew up in nearby Rockville, MD and is a graduate of Frostburg (MD) State University and Richard Montgomery (MD) High School.
Riggleman, who took over as interim manager in July 2009, was given a two-year deal when he was made permanent manager last fall, though the Nats had a very inexpensive buy-out of Riggleman's contract this season if they wanted to go in a different direction. 

There was no mention of the length of his contract at all, other than to simply say Riggleman would return for the upcoming season.  The Nats essentially decided that Riggleman should be the man to lead this team in 2011, without any sort of vote of confidence that past this season he would still be the appropriate manager.

Riggleman has compiled a 624-787 record in 11 seasons as a big league manager.  His career winning percentage of .442 placed him fifth worst among active managers at the start of the season and is among the worst in history of managers with more than 500 games.

According to baseball sources, Riggleman's entire staff will return in 2011, including third base coach Pat Listach, who interviewed for the manager's position with Milwaukee, but was informed that he would not get the job.

Nationals to Make Uniform Changes for Next Season

Posted by Dave Nichols | Tuesday, October 26, 2010 | , | 6 comments »

Updated: Check out 2005 and 2008 Unveiling Photos and Video

According to sources, and confirmed at least in part by DC Sports Bog, the Washington Nationals will make changes to their uniforms for the upcoming season.

One of the widely rumored changes involves the removal of the block lettering and gold trim on the home whites, replacing it with a script "Nationals" to match the road script "Washington".  It remains to be seen if any further changes take place.

The Nats have operated with four uniforms the last few years:  the home whites with the block "Nationals" and numbers on the lower left side, the alternate reds with the "Curly W" on the upper left chest and numbers on the lower right side, the blue holidays with interlocking DC in stars and stripes pattern on the upper left chest and numbers on the lower right side, and the road grays with script Washington on the front and numbers on the lower left.






Personally, the move to script "Nationals" is a welcome one for me.  The original block "Nationals" was done by the league, and in my opinion it was very generic and not particularly attractive.  The script is classic and classy and will look terrific on the home whites, with the uniform numbers in the traditional lower left.

I do not like the uniforms the Nats employ with the logos on the upper left chest and the numbers on the lower right side.  If they are going to leave a logo on the left chest, then don't put a number on the front.  I think it just looks garbled and ugly.  I like the piping on both the reds and the blues though, and if they move to a more traditional logo, even the script "Nationals" on either of these uniforms, I think it would be a HUGE improvement.

What I would also like to see is the interlocking DC on at least one of the hats again.  I realize the "Curly W" is popular and somewhat iconic -- if a logo can attain that lofty status in six years -- but I really like the interlocking DC, and it's a source of pride in with city residents.  It just looks soooo much better on a hat than on the uniform.


Another thing to consider:  The Nationals spent a lot on energy at the end of last season painting just about everything blue, including the press box, walls in the left field dining pavillion, and the second deck concourse in right field at the scoreboard walk.  It was a noticable change from the red that used to be prominently displayed.  Could uniform changes to add more blue be possible?  Get Your Blue On?  Not the same feel.

William World News has some thoughts and opinion on the subject today as well. 

Additionally, the uniform unveiling will be at an invition-only event (credit Steinbog for tracking down one of the invitations), at Nationals Park, reading in part "Enjoy this exclusive fashion show".  Just what the Nats need, is more exclusivity.  The last time they unveiled unforms it was at a public event at the ESPN Zone.  Before that it was at a sportings goods store.  Now an invitation-only "exclusive" fashion show.  Disappointing.

The team should be doing more to reach out to real fans, not less.  It's little things like this that seem to fall on deaf ears on South Capitol street.

If you have any opinions ar ideas on what the new uniform changes could be, please feel free to leave a comment.  I'd love to hear your ideas.

All photo credits Cheryl Nichols/Nats News Network.  All rights reserved.

Bryce Harper Opens to Rave Reviews in Arizona Fall League Play

Posted by Dave Nichols | Thursday, October 21, 2010 | , | 0 comments »

I am not in Arizona, so I did not see Bryce Harper's debut in the Arizona Fall League last night with the Scottsdale Scorpions.  But I've spoken with a couple who did witness the event, and I've read all the accounts and can link a few here for you.

Let's start with the results:  Harper went 1-for-4 with a two-RBI ground rule double in his last at bat.  His outs were a towering pop fly to short left, a hard liner to center that hung up enough for the CF to make a shoestring catch, and a hard grounder to third.  He swung at six of the seven pitches he saw in four at bats.  The double was with the bases loaded and hit to left center that bounced on the warning track and over the fence.

From the accounts, there are two things that stand out about Harper's debut to me.  I'll let The Washington Post's Adam Kilgore set the scene for the first thing: 
On a ball hit into [the left centerfield] gap that occupied a pair of infielders as cutoff men, Harper bolted from right field to second base in order to cover the bag in case of a bad throw, just as Nationals instructor Tony Tarasco taught him last month in the Instructional League.
Harper, playing right field, saw that both the second baseman and shortstop went out for the relay and no one was covering second, so he hustled from right field to cover second if needed on the play.  This tells us two things about the just 18-year old outfielder. 

Number one, he's got good game-situation recognition, and that probably comes from playing catcher most of his career.  Second, he's listening to his coaching, which will go a long way in helping him get to the big leagues as quickly as possible.  So many times players with a strogn pedigree think they know that game, whenthey've really just been excelling and dominating physically inthe amateur level.  That Harper recognizes he has things to learn, and is willing to be instructed, shows a lot about his makeup.

The second biggest thing that stood out to me was in this picture from Getty Images that accompanied Keith Law's almost gushing review at ESPN.com (link to "Insider" article).

Getty Images
Can you spot it?  No batting gloves.  But more than that, his pinky on the bottom hand isn't even on the bat.  You can see how his ring finger is elevated from the the rest of his fingers on his right hand because it's on the knob of the bat.  It will be interesting to watch to see if the organization tinkers with that grip at all. 

Harper will play again Sunday, per the conditions of his placement on the taxi squad for the Scorpions.

"It'll be my baby."  Mike Rizzo, named Washington Nationals V.P. of Baseball Operations.

Mike Rizzo during spring training 2010. (C. Nichols/Nats News Network)
The Washington Nationals today announced that Mike Rizzo has been promoted to Executive Vice President of Baseball Operations and General Manager and signed a new five-year contract. Managing Principal Owner Theodore N. Lerner made the announcement.

“Mike Rizzo is unquestionably one of the best baseball minds in the game,” said Lerner. “He has a unique ability to see player talent for what it is, what it can be, and how it fits into building a team. Mike has been one of the architects of the rebuilding of the entire Nationals player system, from scouting, to player development, to big league signings. We believe the talent foundation we are establishing on and off the field will make the Nationals one of baseball’s most exciting teams over the next several seasons.”

This is a clear indication that going forward, with the resignation of former team President Stan Kasten,  Mike Rizzo will be the bottom line voice of baseball operations in Washington for the foreseeable future.  It will be interesting to watch the dynamic between Rizzo, a no-nonsense old school baseball mind, and the Lerner family, still acclimating themselves to ownership of a sports franchise.

For his part, Rizzo was thankful to the Lerner family, but made it clear that the baseball decisions would be coming from him.

"I'd like to thank the Lerner family and the Washington Nationals organization for giving me this opportunity.  It's a huge opportunity and a huge responsibility and I'm going to embrace it.

"For a guy that loves baseball and grew up in it his whole life, this is a dream opportunity for me."

The biggest difference, Rizzo said, will be in communication with the ownership group.  Referencing Stan Kasten's resignation, he said, "That bridge to the ownership will be gone.  I'll be in charge fully of baseball operations.  I'll have direct communication with the ownership group and be responsible for all baseball operations decisions." 

"It'll be my baby.  My fingerprints will be all over the organization moreso than they are already."

Mike Rizzo enjoys firefighter tribute at Nats Park. (C.Nichols/Nats News Network)
There were plenty of rumors upon Kasten's departure that there were disagreements between Kasten and his ownership partners on how much money to spend and where to spend it most effectively with regards to payroll, and Rizzo's efforts in this area will go a long way to determine how this team will be constructed. 

It's no secret that Rizzo's primary strength is in scouting and development, areas the Nats have significantly bolstered in the past few years, bringing in Roy Clark (V.P. of Player Personnel) and Kris Kline (Scouting Director) among many others.  Rizzo has overseen the last two Amateur Drafts, and the Nats have been the biggest spenders at each, bringing into the fold Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper to record contracts, and 25 of their top 26 picks in the 2010 draft, including over-slot signings of A.J. Cole and Robbie Ray.

Rizzo's record in Major League scouting and acquisitions have had decidedly different results though.

His two biggest trades thus far (four player trade with Pittsburgh in 2009 and this year's deadline deal, sending All-Star closer Matt Capps for Wilson Ramos) are still open for debate, while 2009's free agent class brought disappointing results, with Capps being the only really solid contributor on the field.

Mike Rizzo fields questions at 2010 Nats Fan Fest.  (C.Nichols/Nats News Network)
Rizzo's first order of duty is deciding whether or not to bring Adam Dunn back next season.  The hulking first baseman hit 38 homers last season, but wants a four-year contract of more than $60 million, and it's to be seen if the Nats are willing to go that high. 

It's expected that Dunn will command that type of contract on the open market, especially from A.L. teams that would have Dunn DH on a regular basis, negating Dunn's deficiency in the field.  Dunn has long contended that he wants to play in the field, and has professed to love playing in D.C., but to date the two sides are still far apart in terms of length and money in a potential contract.

Rizzo has five days after the World Series to exclusively negotiate with Dunn, then the slugger will hit the open market.

Rizzo has also said obtaining a "No. 1-type" starter as a priority this off-season.  The only pitcher to fit that bill available as a free agent is Cliff Lee of the Texas Rangers, and his performance in the post-season thus far has only served to make his price tag to go up. 

There may be staff leaders available in the trade market, such as Zach Greinke of the Kansas City Royals or Matt Garza of the Tampa Bay Rays, but with the Nats just now enjoying the fruits of successful drafting, it remains to be seen if Rizzo could put together an attractive enough package to acquire a front-line starter via trade.

Random Thoughts on a Tuesday Morning

Posted by Dave Nichols | Tuesday, October 19, 2010 | , , | 0 comments »

BULLET-POINT STYLE!

  • From www.Nationals360.com, OF Bryce Harper talked to Byron Kerr about his visions for the future of the Washington Nationals. 
"We're going to be the Yankees of the NL East.  I've been telling everybody that.  I think we're going to be the top program in the NL East, and we're going to roll.  We're going to win some World Series.  That's everybody's goal.  [Nationals minor league coordinator] Bobby Henley preached that from day one - we're going to win the NL East one day.  I really believe we're going to do that.  Hopefully we bring a couple World Series to Washington DC."
  • This article discussed the possibility of the Detroit Tigers making a big push for Adam Dunn in the off-season.  The Tigers may -- or may not -- be interested in Dunn, but this article is really just mindless specualtion by a columnist trying to fill digital inches in his online newspaper.
  • Sounds like Yu Darvish is staying in Japan.  Good for him.
  • This guy would look awful good as the right-handed hitting platoon in CF and nice bat off the bench next season for the Nats.  Just sayin'.
  • Cliff Lee keeps adding zeros to the end of the number on his next contract.

Nationals to Send Harper to Arizona Fall League

Posted by Dave Nichols | Wednesday, October 13, 2010 | , , | 0 comments »

MLB.com's Bill Ladson just reported that the Washington Nationals have assigned Bryce Harper to the Scottsdale Scorpions of the Arizona Fall League, joining some of the Nats other top prospects in the prestigious developmental league.

Here's the entirety of Ladson's story
The Nationals have decided that outfielder Bryce Harper will play for the Scottsdale Scorpions of the Arizona Fall League, effective immediately, according to general manager Mike Rizzo. Harper will be on the Taxi squad, which means that he will play twice a week.

The news comes after Harper hit .319 for the Nationals in the Instructional League. He also led the team in RBIs and runs scored.

The club did not want Harper to be idle for the next two months, so they felt it was better for him to continue playing baseball under manager Randy Knorr.

Rizzo, manager Jim Riggleman, hitting coach Rick Eckstein, special assistant Phil Rizzo, a special advisor to the general manager, will also be in Arizona to help develop Harper.
Harper was sent home from the instructional league over the weekend. It now turns out that simply was to give him a chance to celebrate his 18th birthday with his family (Oct. 16) before being moved on to the AFL.

Harper, the No. 1 overall pick in this year's amateur draft, acclimated well in the Instructional League, and will now be facing some of the top talent in the minor leagues.  It will be an excellent test of his natural ability, and give him a chance to shine on a very big stage in front of some of the top talent evaluators in the game.

Stan Kasten Says Goodbye Again

Posted by Dave Nichols | Thursday, October 07, 2010 | , , | 1 comments »

"We have to get our jobs done. The fans will come if we do that." -- Stan Kasten, in his last official press conference as Team President of the Washington Nationals.

Yesterday, not in the press conference room, but in the swanky President's Club, in a back corner by the big plate glass windows that overlook the Washington Nationals batting cages, outgoing Team President Stan Kasten gathered the Nats beat reporters, media relations and other front office staff, and held him own private fireside chat, presumably the last in his tenure with the Washington Nationals.

I say presumably because the man apparently still has some work to do for the Nats and he'll be retaining his ownership stake in the team, at least for the near future until he has his ultimate plans sorted out.  Which he maintains he does not.  Or at least won't discuss.

Kasten answered some of the questions frankly, and some not so much, employing his trademark elaborate "no comment".  No one gives "no comment" like Stan.

The topics of the questions ranged from describing his emotions all the way to the scandal in the Dominican, and Kasten seemed eerily at ease, even for him, sitting in an oversized leather chair with his back to the wall, so no one could sneak up on him.

You can (and should) read the full transcript here, but there were a couple of snippets I wanted to pull out and talk about.

Stan Kasten at Nationals Park. (Photo by C. Nichols/Nats News Network)
HIS IMMEDIATE FUTURE

For the rest of the year, while he's still on the Nats payroll, Kasten has some loose ends he'll help clean up.  Specifically, he mentioned the teams new radio deal and spring training situation as things he's been working on and will continue to help out with. 
"Technically, I'm still a technical employee through the end of the year - although I am free to do whatever I want right now and today is my last official day. We're working on a radio deal for next year. Andy [Feffer] and his staff will be completing it, but I've been working on setting that up. I'm going to continue to help on that. We've been working pretty hard on the future of our spring training. We're looking hard at what might be doable in Viera. We're looking very hard at other alternatives in Florida. We've looked very hard at other alternatives in Arizona. I think there are going to be developments on that score soon. And I'm going to continue to help out on that."
The spring training comments were interesting, and he elaborated on it later in the discussion, mentioning the Dodgers' move to Arizona and the lack of close teams to play in the spring.  Another mitigating factor is that of the six teams closest to the Nats facility in Viera, FL, three of them play in the same division as the Nats (the Mets, Marlins and Braves). 

Kasten mentioned central Florida, the Gulf Cost, or even Arizona as possibilities if the team decides it want to move their spring operations.  He also threw out the idea of trying to entice another team into a vacated area, perhaps alluding to Vero Beach, where the Dodgers trained forever until moving out last season.

HIS FUTURE PLANS

Kasten was pretty non-specific here.  He again mentioned his five-year commitment to the Lerners and Major League Baseball and left it at that. 
"It was a personal thing. I made the commitment to stay here for the five years. And as I told you a couple weeks ago, it just has to do with my own personal expectations, goals, aspirations for myself. I thought when I fulfilled this commitment -- and it was important that I did that -- but when I fulfilled it, I really thought I would be better doing something else. And that's all. I still love everyone here. I love this team. Love this city. But for my professional goals and aspirations, I think I need to be doing something else. It's really that simple."
He was asked specifically about moving into the Commissioner's Office, a theory that only intensified after Bob DuPuy, Bud Selig's second in command, stepped down somewhat mysteriously last week.  Kasten deflected any attempt to discuss that situation, saying he was flattered he'd be thought of in that light, but dismissing it whole cloth. 
"First of all, I reject the premise. I know no one in baseball who thinks Bud is stepping down in 2012. And everyone in baseball, starting with me, is very happy that he won't be, and we'll all encourage him to continue to stay there. I know it's chic to make fun of Bud, but you can't look at the things that have happened in the last two decades without giving a lot of credit to Bud for all he's done. I know that the people who write things like that intend it to be flattering, and I am flattered and appreciative for mentions like that. But I don't think things like that are really realistic. Those things aren't on my mind.
There's no point in discussing it. Again, I'm flattered by the question. But those questions are just kind of silly and really unrealistic. Truly, that's how I feel."
These rumors have been around for a while, and the fact that Kasten has repeated talked about this five-year commitment on two separate occasions, and that he isn't retiring but won't say what he's going to do only adds fuel to the fire. 
 
It's hard to imagine a better qualified candidate, as Kasten has held a GM and/or President position in three of the major U.S. sports and was hand-picked by the Commissioner to build Nationals Park and make the Nats a viable team from the rotted carcass the was the Montreal Expos when it arrived in D.C. six years ago.
 
MLB will need a strong figure leading the owners in the upcoming CBA negotiations, and Kasten would seem to be a great fit in that, then easily slide into the big chair upon Selig's retirement after 2012, which Selig maintains will be the case.  He'd be 75 by then, and this next CBA will probably end up the cap to an historic run as Commissioner.
 
THE STATE OF THE TEAM
 
Kasten maintained yesterday, as he did in his original announcement of his resignation, that he believes the Nationals are small steps away from contending.  That might be optimistic thinking, but there are realistic pieces in place to build a playoff-contending team.  He talked in some detail about the construction of the team, and his personal preference for how to build a winning baseball team. 
"This past year, our minor league system produced not just Strasburg and Storen, but Desmond and Bernadina. Next year, at a minimum, we expect to be producing Ramos and Espinosa, and more. there will certainly be more.
We have a chart in our office for the classes that we foresee two years from now, three years from now, four years from now. Names will change, because that's life. But I think we count now on consistent delivery to the major leagues of real, bona fide players every year. That was very important. And that's why I feel so good about the future. We can debate whether it could have been done quicker. I think that's a fair position to take. Perhaps it could have.
But the way I see this team now, I have a philosophy about teams. I didn't invent this. Many people feel this way. You have your defense up the middle, and your power on the corners. I think that's the kind of team we look to have next year. We will have young, athletic, talented guys who are going to become a really good defense up the middle. We are going to have power on the corners, and that's a really good place to be with your position players. We have a very strong bullpen that we're very proud of. Finally. It took some time. But a lot of young guys in that bullpen, too, so they should be here for a long time.
Now, everything begins and ends with your rotation. That continues to be the area of greatest concern, but we're going to go into '11 in a stronger position than we've ever been in. We always have had a long list of guys who could be in that rotation. A year ago, we talked about '12 or '13. Well, now we can look at the '11 rotation and identify let's say six guys out of whom we can almost surely know that four will come out of that group, and that doesn't yet include Strasburg. And that doesn't yet include the other guy or two that Mike and the owners are intent on acquiring this offseason."
This year, the Nats made a 10-game jump in the win column based on the performance of the bullpen over the disaster that was the 2009 pen.  Next season, the improvement has to come from the starters making those same jumps, with Jordan Zimmermann channeling all that talent into a consistent Major League starter, and John Lannan and Jason Marquis pitching to career norms.  Those things, combined with Ian Desmond and Danny Espinosa up the middle, should help the Nats evolved from a 68-game winner to a mid-70s win team. 

If they add a proven winner at the top of the rotation as Mike Rizzo professes to want to do, and Stephen Strasburg comes back healthy, then we can start talking about competing.

THE STATE OF THE ORGANIZATION

Yesterday, Kasten acknowledged some of the shortcomings of his tenure, but also discussed some of the reasons for optimism. 
"Well, obviously, this job is far from complete, so you can't give a final grade. But no one in this business is truly successful unless they win it all. and yet there are things which are real milestones and real progress on the way to becoming successful. There have been real good things that have happened here in the last couple years that were important to us, starting with a scouting and player development system that I'm really proud of, with people that I'm proud of, starting with Mike. People right behind him like Roy Clark and Chris Kline. On the development side, Bob Boone and Doug Harris. All these people do terrific work and have now put us in a place where we always want to get to, and that is having a pipeline that delivers players annually to the major leagues. You can't really accomplish much until you're in that situation."

"I think the future is really bright and that we now are in a position maybe for the first time since we got back to D.C. to really, really compete. And as you've heard me say before, it's a short distance from competing to contending. So those things are real progress. Is it success yet? No, it isn't, because success is winning, and we haven't done that yet. But we've made real progress, and the future, I think, is very, very bright, and it's a great time to be a Nats fan."


The single biggest factor in the reconstruction of the Washington Nationals was the restructuring of the Amateur Scouting and Player Development departments.  The Nats have pros in there now, not cronies and amateurs and should be churning out professional baseball players for the foreseeable future.  Gone are the days where Kory Casto and Mike Hinckley were the top "prospects".  The Nats are drafting smart, signing their picks, and moving them through the system, like real franchises do.

THE ATTENDANCE

I was frankly surprised no one asked him about this, so I piped up near the end of the questioning.  I tried to phrase the question in order to get more than a numbers answer.  And though Kasten did get into the numbers and the market eventually, he did acknowledge that the losing and the way the team has operated in its six seasons has severely affected the turnstiles.

In 2005, the Nationals season ticket base was over 22,000, playing in depressing, decrepit RFK Stadium.  Now, it might be half that based on the estimates of some of the late-season crowds.  I asked Kasten, considering that and the five out of six last place finishes and consecutive 100-loss seasons, did he think the Nats had squandered all their goodwill with the fan base and essentially had to start over, enticing fans to come back to the Park. 
"I think squandered is probably too strong of a word. Clearly, some of it has dissipated. But let me tell you, I've lived through this before and I've seen it many, many times before. It's going to come back if you have the right market, and this is the right market. A huge fan base. A good mix. A diverse fan base with good demographics. And much better in terms of the economy and disposable income that most other markets.
As soon as we get our product to where we've always wanted it to be but haven't gotten it yet, this is going to be great. And there will be a day, hopefully in the not-too-distant future when we shoot past 22,000 season tickets. But first we have to get our jobs done. The fans will come if we do that."
THE OWNERSHIP

Kasten was asked point-blank if he was confident that ownership was willing to spend to make the team competitive. 
"I think so. I hope so. It's what we've been talking about. We think we're getting closer. And I know the owners are intent on making this successful and on winning here. Believe me, it's their best case. It's how all of us do better, when we win. They're intent on backing Mike up and pursuing the things he wants to pursue and giving him the resources to do it. That's all we talked about all summer.
I think we're all on the same page. So when I talk about an active offseason, it's because it's what we've all talked about, internally with each other. Again, let's see how the winter unfolds. There's still many unknowns about it. But I do know the desire is there. The willingness is there. And I think the follow-through will be there too, I really do."
And was asked specifically if he thought the team would re-sign Adam Dunn. 
"Well, I'm going to say for today, yes, I think so. Everyone here knows I hope so. I said that externally and I've said the internally and I've said that to Adam. You have to wait and see. Obviously, the free agent window is shorter this year so we'll all know, I think, sooner than we might have in the past.
I hope that happens. I think it will be the right thing not just for us. But it would be the right thing for Adam."

Kasten during the last home game of the 2010 season. (Photo by C. Nichols/Nats News Network)

The Washington, DC chapter of the Internet Baseball Writers Association announced their 2010 Nationals Player Achievement Awards earlier today.  There were some very interesting choices and individual votes, plus folks voted on their favorite professional and non-professional baseball writers.  If you read this blog, you'll want to check out the results.

Here's how I voted.

MVP:  Ryan Zimmerman/Adam Dunn/Josh Willingham.  Zimmerman was one of the most valuable players in the entire National League, not surprising he earned every single first place vote on the ballots.  Dunn did what he always does, and everyone saw how important Hammer was -- when he wasn't there anymore.

SPoY:  Stephen Strasburg/Livan Hernandez/John Lannan.  Hernandez certainly well exceeded any expectation I had for him, but Strasburg's debut was electrifying.  He was dominant for those few starts he had, and that was enough to carry my vote.  Upon his return from the minors, Lannan was the same old John -- only better -- striking out ore and walking fewer.

RPoY:  Matt Capps/Sean Burnett/Tyler Clippard.  Capps wasn't as dominant as Burnett really, but he performed very well, was named the Nats lone All-Star, and was traded for the potential catcher of the future.  All around, job well done for a guy coming off a year of 5.80 ERA.  Clippard vultured his way into a bunch of wins and had some problems, but he was also damn near unhittable at times.

Hitter of the Year:  Zimmerman/Ian Desmond/no third place vote.  I fear the voters didn't read the description of this award as closely as the others, as base running and situational hitting were supposed to be taken into account in this category.  Perhaps a tweaking of the award description next season is in order.  Desi really came around once he was moved up in the order.

Slugger of the Year:  Dunn/Willingham/Michael Morse.  I left Zimmerman off my ballot here as I regard him as more than a slugger.  Morse made the most of the opportunities given him this season.

Defensive POY:  Danny Espinosa/Zimmerman/Alberto Gonzalez.  I really, honestly think if he gets 500-plus at bats next season, Espinosa will win the Gold Glove at second.  I think he's that good.  Zim had another fine year, but his constant sidearm throwing has me nervous.  Gonzo can play anywhere in the infield and has as good an arm as anyone.

Comeback POY:  Jordan Zimmermann/Matt Capps/Roger Bernadina.  I guess most folks thought Livo's comeback from sucking for three years was enough to garner the nod here.  J-ZImm's return from Tommy John in 51 weeks is nothing short of remarkable,and we can only hope Strasburg takes the same route in his rehab.  Bernie's return from his broken leg was good news too.

Humanitarian of the Year:  Capps/Lannan/Willingham.  It's kinda telling in the ballot that Capps finished out of the Top 3 overall, but received four first place votes -- the only people that voted for him.  He did more in less time for the good of the community.  Lannan shows up for everything, and Hammer's foundation and appearances put him on my list.

Minor Leaguer of the Year:  Espinosa/Tom Milone/Tyler Moore.  Espi charged through the ranks and produced at every level.  Milone averaged almost a K per inning and K/BB rate of 155/23 was outstanding at the Double-A level.  Moore's power streak in the middle season was ridiculous, but he'll have to prove himself next year as he was old for Single-A this season (23).

Go take a look at the totals, and let me know what you think in the comments.

Thoughts on the First Day of the Off-Season

Posted by Dave Nichols | Monday, October 04, 2010 | , | 10 comments »

First, all apologies for not writing game stories over the weekend.  I didn't plan on taking the last two days of the season off, but we had a lot on our plate this weekend and couldn't catch up.

I'm sure you know by now, the Nats lost two of three to the Mets, a team that knew their manager and general manager would be fired after the last out of the season was recorded.  Maybe that was the reason for the 14 innings yesterday.

You also know by now the Nats ended with a 69-93 record.  Pythagoras had the Nats for 72 wins based on runs scored and allowed, so the team overall "underachieved" by three games.  I predicted 68 wins at the start of the season.  I'm not happy that I was pretty darn close to be right.

The 11-game improvement from last season is all bullpen.  Last season, the pen was filled with players over their heads or past their prime and Joel Hanrahan, who was the unluckiest pitcher in baseball the first-half of last season (.431 BABiP).  This season it has been a strength, finishing fourth in the N.L. in bullpen ERA and fifth in bullpen runs per game overall. 

Tyler Clippard, Sean Burnett, Doug Slaten, Drew Storen and Joel Peralta all exceeded optimistic expectations.  Will they continue to dominate in 2011?  Will the Nats appoint a closer out of the group?  Questions to ponder.

We knew at the beginning of the year that starting pitching was going to be a sore point for this team, and it certainly lived down to the fears.  The Nats allowed the fifth most runs per games from their starters.  John Lannan, Jason Marquis and Scott Olsen all faced injury and pitched poorly in the first half.  Their absence exposed the lack of depth of Major League-ready arms in the Nats system.

Of all the pitchers to start more than one game for the Nats -- eleven total -- only three had ERAs lower than 4.25:  Livan Hernandez (3.66), Stephen Strasburg (2.91)... and J.D. Martin (1-5, 4.13 in nine starts).

Martin's record with decent ERA leads the discussion to the Nats' biggest failure this season:  the hitting.

Washington scored the third fewest runs per game (4.04), more than just Houston and Pittsburgh.  What should have been a strength was their biggest liability.  And it all started at the top of the order.

Anyone thinking that Nyjer Morgan would duplicate his six week stint from 2009 was kidding themselves.  But what Morgan did this season also was worse than any doomsday prediction for him.  Morgan hit .253/.319/.314 out of the leadoff spot.  That's abominable.  The only thing worse than the production was not correcting the course, something the Nationals had several opportunities to do, but decided against each time.

You can't drive runs in if no one is on base, and that's reflected in the numbers.  The Nats had 15 batters gather more than 100 plate appearances.  Of those, just four had OBPs higher than .327: Josh Willingham (.389), Ryan Zimmerman (.388), Adam Dunn (.356) and Michael Morse (.352).  That's right, Cristian Guzman's .327 OBP was fifth best on the Nats this year.  Ugh.

The defense, in a word, stunk.  The Nats tied for last in the N.L. with Pittsburgh in team errors (127), and that only begins to describe the fielding woes.  But the Nats did make 19 fewer errors than in 2009, so I guess it's a start.

General Manager Mike Rizzo has already gone on record as desiring a No. 1-type starter this off-season.  It's a nice proposition, but there's only one of those in the free agent class, Cliff Lee.  And he's sure to garner attention from all the big players.  But this team has a lot of places on the roster it can upgrade.

I've seen already that some season reviews have said the Nats don't really have too many "glaring holes" on the roster and that Rizzo thinks the team is at a point where it's very competitive.  Over the next couple of weeks I'll take a more in-depth look at the roster and offer critique, but in a nut shell here are my biggest "glaring holes" as we move into the off-season.

1.  First base.  Dunn's as good as gone.  If they were going to get a contract done, it would have been right after the trade deadline, but at that point Dunn's camp probably already decided to go to free agency.  Believe whatever report you want to, but the Nats simply are not going to offer Dunn four years. 

The team has been putting Dunn's defensive liabilities out in the mainstream media to deflect criticism when they don't offer the player the years and dollars he'll get on the open market.  I still think Kenny Williams (White Sox) will gives Dunn what he wants, Dunn just has to decide to put his glove away.

My personal preference to replace Dunn is to find a trade partner that has a Major League ready 1B at the minor league level, and there are several candidates, rather than go the free agent market.  All the FAs are older and less accomplished that what here already.  If that's the route they're taking, they should just stick with Dunn.

2.  Leadoff hitter.  Morgan isn't really equipped for it, despite his overall career OBP of .344.  Worse, he hits left-handers at a .200/.292/.269 clip for his career.  That's just not acceptable.  Simply put, Morgan cannot be allowed to hit against left-handers anymore.  Period.  The 151 plate appearances the team allowed Morgan to have against lefties this year (.200/.280/.252) -- especially hitting ahead of Zimmerman and Dunn -- was irresponsible and damaging.

On top of his low OBP stats, and despite all the wondrous speed he has, Morgan's not an elite base stealer (has led the league in caught stealing two years in a row now), nor is he an elite fielder.

His lifetime .308/.361/.387 against righties is acceptable.  If the Nats want to find a true platoon partner for Morgan, and coach him up on hitting the cut-off man and preaching defensive responsibility instead of concentrating on the spectacular, he can be rehabilitated to at least be a useful Major League player.  But he's simply not a "cornerstone".

3.  Starting Pitching.  Livan Hernandez, John Lannan, Jordan Zimmermann, Jason Marquis, Yunesky Maya.  There's your rotation for next year.  Rizzo has said "A No. 1 starter is our top priority" but realistically, Cliff Lee will cost a fortune in money and years, and where is Rizzo going to find a team that a) is willing to part with an ace, and b) is willing to take what realistically little Rizzo has to offer?  Zack Greinke? 

The Nats just don't have enough prospects built up yet to be able to package two or three of them to acquire that type of player.

If they re-sign Dunn, and get a full year of the "real" John Lannan and Jason Marquis, and Desmond/Espinosa get another year under their belts, and they get a platoon for Morgan, and the Bernie/Morse RF combo performs as they did most of this year, and the bullpen doesn't implode, AND they don't have a catastrophic injury, the Nats can pick up another 8-10 games in the standings and be set for 2012 and the return of their homegrown ace and possibly the debut of their second "once in a generation" player.

Any of that falls through, and we'll have to adjust our projections on the fly.

GAME 160 REVIEW: Loss 92 Comes in Extra Innings

Posted by Dave Nichols | Saturday, October 02, 2010 | , , | 1 comments »

THE RESULT:  Even with news that their manager and general manager will be fired when the season ends, the New York Mets found enough effort to deliver loss 92 to the Washington Nationals, 2-1, at Citifield before 29,424.

The Nats, on the other hand, looked like they can't wait until the season is over.

They were three-hit by Pat Misch and Hisanori Takahashi.  They struck out 14 times.  They made two more errors in the outfield, including the centerfielder running into the left fielder while he was camped underneath it.

And the Mets won the battle of solo home runs.

Washington has scored eight runs in their last six games and has just 11 hits in the last four games.  With two games remaining, they need to win both to react the elusive 70-win total.

Jordan Zimmermann pitched extremely well over six innings in his final start of the season.  He gave up just three hits, and did not walk a batter, striking out three.  The only run he gave up was a solo shot to rookie first baseman Ike Davis, his 19th of the season.

Tyler Clippard, however, suffered a worse fate.  His string of 13 consecutive scoreless appearances, covering 17 innings, came to a screeching halt in the bottom of the tenth, as catcher Josh Thole took him deep for his third home run of the season.

THE GOOD:  Michael Morse hit a solo home run, his 14th of the season.

THE BAD:  Alberto Gonzalez and Justin Maxwell both struck out three times in four trips to the plate.

THE UGLY:  Nyjer Morgan ignored Justin Maxwell called for a fly ball in straight-away left field, running into Maxwell, causing the ball to fall harmlessly to the ground.  It didn't contribute to a run, but it's just more evidence of the defensive dysfunction of this team.

THE STATS:  14 Ks, 2 BBs, 0-for-2 with RISP, 4 LOB, 0 GIDP.

NEXT GAME:  Saturday at 1:10 pm against the Mets.  Yunesky Maya (0-3, 6.43) faces Raul Valdes (3-3, 5.23).