"I've been in the post-season a lot the last few years, and that's what it's all about.  That's what you play for."

""You finally get to free agency, you have a chance to do something special for yourself and for your family. There's a lot of things that go into it."

--Jayson Werth, at his introductory press conference.

(D.Nichols/Nats News Network)

The obligatory handshakes and jersey presentation were there.  The Lerner family was fully represented in the front row and repeatedly acknowledged.  All the local TV, cable, print and Internet media were there as well.  And as normal as this press conference seemed to be, something unusual happened.

A bit of news actually leaked out.

Today, the Washington Nationals presented outfielder Jayson Werth to the media and fans of the team.  But among all the "Bull Durham" quotes Werth offered about being happy to be here, wanting stability for his family, and looking to build a championship-caliber team, something he said, probably as an after-thought, sparked renewed interest in evaluating his massive contract.

"You finally get to free agency, you have a chance to do something special for yourself and for your family. There's a lot of things that go into it," Werth said. "The years were important to me. The chance to come to a city, guaranteed to be here for a long time, the no-trade was a big deal for me. I have a chance to set my family up for years to come here."

GM Mike Rizzo not only gave a 32-year old player one of the richest contracts in the history of the game, and certainly THE longest and richest this organization has ever known, he also gave him a full no-trade clause to come here.

"I'd rather not have a no-trade clause, because it's another impediment to roster construction; I would term it that way," Rizzo told reporters after the grip and grin was over.   "A no-trade clause gives the players more control. That's why we're reluctant to do it. It's something that, for an elite free agent like this, I thought I would relent on it, because we had to do it to get the player."

(D.Nichols/Nats News Network)

Several times during the live telecast, and repeated afterward to the beat reporters, Werth described how the years of the contract were important to him and his family, that the security of a long-term deal was one of his motivating factors in choosing a team in his free agent year. 

In fact, I asked him in the locker room after things calmed down why he chose to come to building organization, rather than a contender, when he could have gone anywhere.

"I didn't have the opportunity to go anywhere," he explained.  He cited several reasons he chose D.C., including the Lerner family's "vision" of the organization and the chance to "help build an organization and mold young talented players". 

But he finished:  "The length of contract, obviously, to get a sense of normalcy, I guess you could say, being in a city for a long period of time.  Being able to set up family, my kids, and just get things the way I wanted them."

"I've played my whole life for this situation.  It's my life's work, my blood sweat and tears, since I was four-years old playing tee ball.  A lot of things going into this decision, more than most people would think."

Good for him to be able to provide for his family in the most financially secure way possible.

(D.Nichols/Nats News Network)

But on the field, things just got a whole lot more interesting.  He's no longer a complementary piece to a championship-caliber club.  He's the man.  Whether he likes it or not.  He'll be under contract long after Ryan Zimmerman becomes a free agent.  Heck, he'll still have a couple years left when Stephen Strasburg becomes a free agent.

And the contract is untradeable.

Rizzo and Werth are now joined at the hip.  This was Rizzo's signature deal, the one he'll be judged on the rest of his career.  Asked how he responds to the critics of the deal when they say the later years of this contract will be an albatross, both on the field and in the checkbook, Rizzo said, "I don't answer 'em.  I sleep like a baby knowing we got Jayson Werth."

What does Rizzo know about Werth that 120 years of baseball history doesn't?  History says a player in his mid-30's declines, and rarely does a position player get to his late 30's to prove people wrong.  But Werth got a seven-year deal worth $126 million.  To make matters worse, it's back-ended, so it'll be even more damaging than the contract average of $18 million per season during the last few years of the contract, which pays Werth until he's 39-years old.

Rizzo's answer: 

"This is the package that we were looking for going into the off-season. We wanted to get better skilled players that play both sides of the ball, offensively and defensively. We've got a guy here who can hit 30-plus home runs, drive in 100 runs, play Gold Glove defense, steal you 20 bases, lead in the clubhouse and be a middle-of-the-lineup hitter. The bigger the game, the better he's played in his career. He's playoff-battle tested. And he brings an edge to the ballclub.

I've seen it oh too many times with the Phillies. That's the type of guy we want. And I think that's what separated him as far as those elite free-agent candidates we were looking at: His skill-set fit with what Jim [Riggleman] and I are looking to do with the ballclub. But also his makeup, his persona and just the way he plays on a superstar-skill level and still plays like a guy that's not afraid to get his jersey dirty and would run through a wall for you."

Never mind that Werth has hit more than 30 home runs just once in his career and has never driven in 100 runs, even hitting behind Chase Utley and Ryan Howard the last three years in Philadelphia.  Nor has he won a Gold Glove.  But Rizzo sees it in him.

 

Well, he better do all that now, because Rizzo has staked his reputation on this one.  If it works out, and the Nats are competing for division titles in the near future with Werth manning right field (or center, or left, depending on a multitude of options), we can all pat Rizzo on the back and say "Job well done."

 

But if Jayson Werth's career takes a normal path of decline and degrade through his mid to late-thirties, and ends up being an albatross around Rizzo's neck, don't say nobody didn't warn you.

 

Look, Werth is a terrific player.  He's got some pop, speed and plays pretty good defense.  But he was the third -- or fourth -- best option on a championship-caliber club.  He's not going to come in here and be Superman.  He's just not that player, as much as Rizzo is trying to make him sound like he is.  And they just bought his declining years at an exorbitant price.

 

It's entirely possible that just when the Nats are getting good -- really good when Strasburg and Zimmermann and Harper and Desmond and Espinosa and Norris are all hitting their prime -- Jayson Werth will be broken down and washed out.  And the Nats will still be paying him better than $18 million per year.

 

Werth is an upgrade at one position on the field for the next couple of years.  What happens after that, and whether this club is contending or not is something no one -- not even Mike Rizzo -- knows.  But he spent a lot of the Lerner's money to try to find out.

Werth shares a smile with his representitive, Scott Boras (D.Nichols/Nats News Network)

FYI:  If you want a more complete re-cap of the Q&A session, check out Mark Zuckerman at Nats Insider, or catch the video at MASNSports.com.

"You've got to treat it like its our playoffs." -- Adam Dunn, on beating the suddenly struggling Braves

THE RESULT:  The chants started after the first home run, just a few in the upper deck behind home plate.  After the second homer, they grew louder and spread to different parts of the park.

The cheers came to a cresendo after the two-run single in the sixth.

"It's really good to feel wanted. Who doesn't want that feeling?" the hulking first baseman told reporters after the game.

Nationals Park fans, maybe for the first time ever, were actually letting anyone that would listen know how they felt about the slugger who becomes a free agent at the end of the season.

It remains to be seen who was listening.

Regardless, Adam Dunn drove in five runs tonight for the Washington Nationals, leading his last-place team over the Atlanta Braves 8-3, who now find themselves struggling to hold onto a playoff spot in the National League, before a raucous Friday night crowd of 22,515.

The win marks four in a row for the Nats, the first time this season they've been able to muster that long a winning streak.

The season record stands at 66-88 with eight games left, and you know the team -- and organization -- would love to reach the 70 win mark.  After four wins in a row, that goal actually looks attainable.

The loss also marks four in a row for the Braves.  They started play six games behind the Philadelphia Phillies and a half-game behind San Diego for the wildcard and are slumping at the least opportune time of the season.

Dunn hit both his home runs (36, 37) off Tim Hudson (L, 16-9, 2.80), who usually owns the Nationals.  But the veteran righty struggled tonight, walking six and allowing six earned runs on seven hits, striking out just three.  He took a liner off his shin early in the game, but pitched through whatever discomfort he might have had.

On the other hand, Jordan Zimmermann had what Manager Jim Riggleman described as his "best start of the season", throwing five innings and giving up just one earned run (a solo homer by All-Star Omar Infante), three hits, one walk, one hit batter and struck out five.  Zimmermann earned the win (1-2), his first victory since June 29, 2009.

Willie Harris hit an inside-the-park home run in the seventh inning off reliever Kyle Farnsworth.  He drove a ball to the wall in straight center, and Nate McLouth slammed into the wall trying to chase it down.  McLouth lost the ball for a moment, and third base coach Pat Listach waived Harris around third.  The relay throw was a bit up the line, and Harris slid into home head first, beating the play.

It was his 10th home run of the season.

But the night belonged to Adam Dunn -- and the vocal section of the crowd chanting their desire for the front office to get him under contract.  Neither side really has a strong incentive to work out a deal until he files for free agency. 

Unless. of course, the team wants to show some goodwill to their fan base, especially considering the uncertainty going forward with Stan Kasten no longer advising the ownership.

THE GOOD:  In addition to Dunn and Zimmermann, props must be given to Tyler Clippard.  He went two innings, against the heart of the Braves order, and did not allow a hit or walk, striking out four of the six batters he faced.

THE BAD:  Joel Peralta was nowhere near as sharp as he was the other night, allowing two earned runs on two hits in one-third of an inning.

THE UGLY:  Dunn giveth and Dunn taketh away.  A routine ground ball with runners on ate him up at first base, allowing a run to score in the Braves two-run eighth.  But the damage was already done.

THE STATS:  7 Ks, 7 BBs, 2-for-9 with RISP, 0 LOB, 0 GIDP, 2 Errors (Dunn, Zimmermann)

NEXT GAME:  Quick turnaround: Saturday at 1:05 pm.  Yunesky Maya (0-2, 6.32) takes on Derek Lowe (14-12, 4.18).

NATS NOTES:  Ryan Zimmerman sat out his second straight game with a rib cage strain.  Riggleman said the team will be very cautious with the gold gove third baseman, fearful of him aggrevating the injury and missing the rest of the season.

Riggleman said he expects to have CF Nyjer Morgan back in the starting lineup Saturday. Morgan's eight-game suspension ended Friday.

Adam Dunn's contract status is the biggest decision heading into off-season for Mike Rizzo and the Washington Nationals. (Photo by C.Nichols/Nats News Network)

Let's get one thing straight shall we fair readers?

Whether or not the Washington Nationals re-sign Adam Dunn has almost nothing to do with his defensive ability, contrary to what anyone at The Washington Post -- whether it's Thomas Boswell, Adam Kilgore, or this guy -- might have to say about Dunn's iron glove.

It's all about the money.

More precisely, it's about the money and years on the contract.

I'm certainly not knocking the guys at the Post.  Bless the mainstream guys, they're buying what the team is selling right now about their "defensive philosophy" and distributing that message to the masses.  The team needs to gain a sympathetic ear with those fans when they fail to re-sign Dunn when he hits the free agent market, accepting a four-year deal from the White Sox or Yankees.

And it's a lot easier to convince those fans that the player has a fatal flaw, essentially blaming the player for his shortcomings.

But it ain't the truth.

Dunn's camp -- rightfully so -- sees this as his last big payday.  They know that several teams lust after Dunn's powerful left-handed bat, and will pay him to put his glove away. They also know, as well as the baseball scholars, that Dunn's career will follow one of two paths the next couple of years. 

Either Dunn continues to slug homers and drive in runs at a rate so prodigious he'll be mentioned as one of the top three or four power hitters of his generation, or he'll fall off the map so fast your head will spin.

I wrote about this back in July when Dunn's name was prominently on the trading block, and now watching the big guy struggle for the second straight season during the dog days, the debate becomes even more focused.

Dunn's supporters will tell you he's hit 35-plus home runs in each of the last seven years and could post his highest batting average of his career this season.  Dunn's detractors will tell you his homers, walks and OBP have all dropped the last three seasons and he's disappeared two August/Septembers in a row.

Both are correct.  It's Mike Rizzo's job to figure out which trend will continue.

If Rizzo is confident that Dunn will follow the career path of Jim Thome, blasting 35-plus homers for the next four years, by all means he should lock up the slugger to provide a middle-of-the-order presence to take pressure off Ryan Zimmerman (signed only through 2013 himself) and Bryce Harper, once the prodigy makes his debut, probably in 2012.

However, if Rizzo sees the decline in yearly stats and consecutive late season slumps and envisions Richie Sexson or Mo Vaughn, then he should run -- not walk -- away from any long-term deal and wish Dunn vaya con dios.

It's true Dunn has been one of the game's biggest run producers in his career, and that descriptions of his defensive abilities range from "improving" to "one of the worst fielders in the game", depending on whom you wish to listen too.  But comments about his defense being the reason the Nats will or won't re-sign Dunn are a red herring.

Because the honest truth, regardless how clumsy Dunn mght look at times and how awkward he lunges after balls hit five feet to either side, is that first base defense really doesn't matter all that much.  The margin between the very best fielders at first and the very worst, with their offense factored in, is almost negligible in almost every single advanced metric.

Mike Rizzo knows this.

It's still not an easy decision.  Do the Nats invest in Dunn, knowing that hulking sluggers that walk a lot have a penchant for fading fast once they get past 30 years of age?  Or do they let him walk (no pun intended) and risk alienating a significant portion of the fan base that loves seeing Dunn pepper the bleachers above the Nats' bullpen?

Let me take that last question.  Sentimentality should play no part in Rizzo's decision to re-sign Dunn.  Taking the fans' opinion in this matter is frankly ridiculous, because Rizzo is damned if he do, and damned if he don't.

If Dunn re-signs and then tanks, everyone and their brother will scream that Rizzo wasted so much money on an aging player, handicapping the team to have any flexibility for roster changes because of an albatross contract.  If Dunn signs somewhere else and he tanks, Rizzo will have "gotten lucky".

Were it up to me, I would offer Dunn arbitration and once declined, wait him out to see if he gets his long-term deal, or has to settle for something shorter like the last time he was a free agent -- which is how he landed in our laps to begin with. 

If he finds a better deal, I'd happily take the two draft picks as compensation, then invest the money I would have spent on Dunn on two younger, more athletic players either via free agency or trade.  But it's not my decision.

No, it's not an easy decision for Mike Rizzo, deciding on whether to re-sign an aging fan favorite.  But please understand it's not about any shift in philosophy about team defense.

Like almost everything else in baseball, it's all about the money.

The Washington Nationals have signed number one overall draft pick Stephen Strasburg, according to a press release issued by the team moments ago.

According to multiple sources, the record-setting contract is a four-year deal worth $15.67 million.

Should the contract number be accurate, it eclipses the previous record amateur contract of Mark Prior by $5.17 million.

This represents the best evidence of the ownership group providing the baseball personnel the talent they need to change the culture of losing that has dominated this franchise for the last several years, after the surprise near-.500 finish in 2005.

Strasburg, a dominant right-handed starting pitcher from San Diego State University, was heralded as the "best prospect in the history of the draft" but many scouts and talent evaluators. He has a fastball that has touched triple digits, and routinely sits 94-97 MPH.

He has an exceptional slider, and a change-up that one talent evaluator described as "too good to use on college hitters," indicating that the lower lever hitters were so late on his fastball that they would connect with the change.

His "makeup" and control have been praised as much as natural ability, from scouts to his college coach, Hall of Famer Tony Gwynn.

It's a huge step toward respectability for this organization, which has had a year of seemingly endless embarrassment.

Much more tomorrow, including the press conference and further detail about the contract.

NOTES: The Nats also announced the signing of 12th round pick Nathan Karns, a RHP from Texas Tech.

The Washington Nationals came to terms yesterday with the remaining players that had not signed contracts for the 2009 season, including Face of the Franchise (tm) Ryan Zimmerman.

Zimmerman signed a one-year, $3.325 million deal, with incentives that could push the deal to $3.5 million, first reported by Chico at Nationals Journal.

Zim's one-year deal was not the long-term contract many Nats fans have been clamoring for, but does avoid a trip to the arbitration table, where the two sides would have had to argue the merits and deficiencies of the most important piece to the building puzzle that makes up the Nats roster as of today.

There is a wealth of opinion about the situation from my blogging brethren, and among Nats fans in general, but from my perspective, and apparently from the parties involved, there was no over-arching need to get the long-term contract done at this point. Both parties think they can still win the game they are playing. And it's funny, because both sides need Zimmerman to have a good, healthy year to make that happen.

The team obviously wants to have Zimmerman be part of this franchise for many, many years to come, but at a price that is reasonable and responsible. Zim missed a good chunk of last year due to the shoulder injury he suffered against the Orioles. The team needs to see a healthy Zim spraying line drives and diving around at third with impunity to be able to make the call on committing $8-$10 million a year on their biggest investment.

Zim and his representatives see the Markakis, Longoria and Pedroia deals and, reasonably, think that Zim belongs in that category as well, if not a notch above that. If the player goes out and has that .285/.385/.515 year with 30 homers and 100 RBIs that has been promised since the day he was drafted, well...the Markakis deal (6 years, $66 million) is just the starting point.

But if Ryan gives the Nats the quality stats but not quite deliver on the counting stats (say, 24 homers and 85 RBIs), or if he missed significant time to injury, then the team's prudence should pay off with a deal more in the range they are looking for.

I cracked open my brand-spanking new Baseball Prospectus last night, and Zim's comparables through his age 24 season are instructive as to the type of player he is. Three of his top four comps were Eric Chavez, Larry Parrish and Bob Horner. All three were pretty good-to-terrific players, when they were healthy. Chavez' rookie season wasn't as good as Zim's, but you couldn't ask for a better forecast for Ryan than Eric Chavez.

Here's a guy that for the first seven years of his career would hit .280/.350/.510, with 26-to-34 homers and right around 100 RBIs, plus play a gold-glove quality defense at third base. If Zimmerman could put up Chavez numbers, I think all parties would be ecstatic. It's no wonder the A's decided Chavez would be the one of their young All-Stars to give the long term deal to. Remember, they let Giambi and Tejada walk, and signed Chavez to the multi-year deal.

What happened? He hurt his back in his age 27 year, and has never been the same player since.

Parrish is an interesting study. Undrafted, he signed as an amateur free agent and was in the big leagues--full time--in three years. He was third in Rookie of the Year balloting in 1975 as a 21-year old, but his development stalled a bit due to some nagging injuries in his year 23 and 24 seasons. Sound like anyone you know? Then he got healthy and had his career year at age 25 (.307/.357/.551, 30-82, 4th in MVP ballots).

What happened? In his next nine seasons, he only had three years where he played more than 145 games. He was an All-Star at age 33 (33 HRs and 100 RBIs) and finished with 256 homers, but couldn't stay healthy enough to put him in the elite class of players.

Which brings us to Bob Horner, one of my all-time favorite players. Rookie of the Year at age 20. Three 30 homer seasons before he was 25. Struck out like he was a singles hitter, not a slugger.

What happened? Had an injury filled age 23 season, limiting him to 79 games. Bounced back the next year to hit 32 homers and 97 RBIs in his lone All-Star season, figuring the injury was past him. He never played a full season again and was done by age 30.

It's a dangerous game of chicken the two sides are playing. Both sides want Zimmerman healthy. Both want him productive. Both want him to sign a long term deal. But both both sides also want to be able to set the parameters of the deal. Who wins this dangerous game will determine those parameters, and the future of the Face of the Franchise (tm).