Today is Part One of a two part series.  We'll examine what the roster will look like with -- and without -- Adam Dunn next season, and try to predict the additional moves that would accompany both decisions.  Part Two will post Monday.

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C. Nichols/NatsNews Network

Say the Nats re-sign Adam Dunn...

Does that mean the team expects to be competitive next season?

There's been a rash of "What will the Nats roster look like in 2012?" going around since the signing of the No. 1 overall draft pick, but what about next year?  Does General Manager Mike Rizzo think he has the horses to make some noise next year, after finishing this season 10 games or so better than last (barring a monumental September collapse)?

They'll have to make another 10-plus win jump next year too to get into the conversation.

Let's take a look at how the team will line up next season, assuming Rizzo hands Dunn a three-year contract, and the big fella accepts it.

The team is set in the infield:  Ryan Zimmerman, Ian Desmond, a combo of Adam Kennedy (whose option the Nats will surely pick up) and Danny Espinosa at second base, with Dunn at first and Alberto Gonzalez backing everyone up.

The outfield is muddled:  Josh Willingham is team-controlled one more year, so expect him to be back.  But that's where the certainty ends.  You have to figure the team would like to get by with either Nyjer Morgan or Roger Bernadina platooning with a right-handed hitter in center. 

What we're left with is the great right field debate.

Michael Morse is proving to be exposed as an every day player, but he can be a useful bat off the bench and against lefties.  So the team needs to find a left-handed hitting starting right fielder, preferably with some pop, and on a two-year contract (so as not to block one Bryce Harper).

Catcher is set:  Ivan Rodriguez will bring his .280 OBP out for another season as he slogs his way to 3000 hits, and hopefully Wilson Ramos gets three starts a week to slow Pudge's efforts down.

Rotation:  Surprisingly, this should be fairly easy.  How about Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, Yuneski Maya, John Lannan and Jason Marquis?  As bad as Marquis has been, the team signed him to a two-year deal and he'll be given every opportunity in spring training to win a rotation spot. 

But there are plenty of other candidates for that fifth spot anyway, and a typical team goes through half a dozen guys rotating in-and-out of the bottom of the rotation every season.  If Marquis can't answer the bell in March, he's a sunken cost and the Nats cut bait and go with a younger arm.  Or Livan Hernandez (shudder).

Bullpen:  Always an interesting topic of debate.  Drew Storen is the cost-controlled closer every team dreams of.  After that, you gotta figure Tyler Clippard and Sean Burnett will return as the primary set-up men.  All the rest of the pen is fluid with several candidates to return, but if Rizzo thinks he's going to be seriously competitive, he'll want to find a legitimate left-handed specialist.

And most assuredly, Jim Riggleman will be here to kick around again, at least to start the season.

Let's ponder the batting order:

CF Morgan (or Bernadina)

SS Desmond

3B Zimmerman

1B  Dunn

LF Willingham

RF Free agent or trade

2B Kennedy/Espinosa

C  Rodriguez/Ramos

Does that look like a wild card chasing lineup to you?  I don't know, I'm asking.  Because it looks to me much like the regular everyday lineup this season that's middle of the pack in the league in runs scored and on their way to lose 90 games or so. 

Will the growth in the pitching staff be able to lead this lineup toward the playoffs.  It's still defensively challenged, but you hope that whoever they bring in for right field isn't a butcher.

I wonder if -- combined with the pitching -- it looks like a contender to Mike Rizzo?

According to a tweet from MLB.com's Bill Ladson, Stephen Strasburg will start the Nationals' first game after the All-Star break, Friday, July 16 in Florida.

If you take a look at the schedule, and keeping with the Nats' desire to limit his total innings this season to 160 and to have him pitch every fifth day, the phenom will finish his season before Labor Day.

The team originally stated that they hoped to be able to have Strasburg pitch through September, but considering that he's already thrown 92 innings between the majors and minors this season, that leaves him 68 innings left to reach his threshold.

If he averages six innings per start, that gives him 11 starts remaining (including tonight's game against San Francisco).

If the Nats keep him on an every fifth day schedule from July 16 on, he'll make his tenth post-ASG start Wednesday, September 1 at Florida.  The team could skip a start or build in extra days of rest, but on an every-fifth-day rotation there are two extras days due to the vagueries of the schedule.

Here's what Strasburg's schedule could look like, given the usual caveats of rain days and team discretion:

Sat., 7/9 v. SF

Fri., 7/16 @ FLA

Wed., 7/21 @ CIN

Tues., 7/27 v. ATL (team off 7/26, extra day)

Sun., 8/1 v. PHI

Fri., 8/6 @ LAD

Wed.. 8/11 v. FLA

Tues., 8/17 @ ATL (team off 8/16, extra day)

Sun., 8/22 @ PHI

Fri., 8/27 v. STL

Wed., 9/1 @ FLA

Don't run off buying tickets based on this evaluation, because a lot can change between now and Sept. 1.  It's just a fun exercise to see how things might play out the rest of the way.

MLBTradeRumors.com reports that the Nats might be interested in 36-year old OF Randy Winn. Winn is still a terrific defensive player, but his slash stats last season were Guzmanian at .262/.318/.353 in 528 ABs. There's already speculation about what Winn's role might be with the Nationals.

My take: he'd be fine as a veteran fourth OF and defensive replacement, but not at the expense of Dukes' development, or the pushing of Willingham out the door. Something tells me Winn's still looking for a FT roll, though.

The Nats have a decent offense, but if Winn were to play full-time over either Dukes or Willingham, it would leave a hole in the batting order that his defense simply couldn't make up for. This lineup just can't make up for two sub-.320 OBPs, and that's what Winn and Guzman bring to the table.

One of our favorite fellow bloggers had his take on what the team may look like next year, and while it may be a little early for that, I figured on the off-day it might a fun exercise. I won't critique his work, because every one is entitled to His Own Opinion, but I'll offer my thoughts, and most of these were expressed trading e-mails today with some other brilliant baseball minds.

The biggest decision during the off-season is not one of player personnel, but one of front office personnel. Whether the team retains Jim Bowden as GM is the biggest question facing this organization. That said, Let's Speculate!

OUTFIELD: We're almost certain to see a Dukes-Milledge-Kearns outfield next year to start, with Harris and Pena as back-ups. Pena has a player option which he's certainly take, and the team will at least try to see if the injury he hid all season was to blame for his poor play. They just won't throw $2M away. Harris is not under contract for next year and is arbitration eligible, and players of his sort (4th OFs having career years) are typically not the kind that rebuilding teams should be clogging their system with. That said; a) this team has a history or doing just that, and b) with so many questions in the OF, he's probably a pretty good investment, unless he costs Guzman money.

INFIELD: We're looking at Johnson and Young (both crutches) at first, Bonifacio at 2B, Guzman at SS and Zim at 3B. All these guys are under contract, there's no one in the minors pushing them and the team has already gone on record saying they aren't going to chase big-time free agents, nor should they at this point. Then I think they'll keep Belliard and Gonzalez as utility players. Gonzalez is a legitimate defensive wizard with a cannon, and will be invaluable providing middle infield defense in the late innings. As long as they don't have to ask him to swing the bat all that often. Anderson Hernandez is a spare part, and will stay warm in Triple-A (wherever that may be next year) in case of injury.

CATCHER: Pretty simple: Jesus Flores and Wil Nieves, or some other veteran catch-and-throw guy (think Gary Bennett-types). Flores' development is one of the few bright points this season, and he just needs to keep playing to keep getting better.

OTHERS: That's 14 position players right there, probably one too many. It may come down to Gonzalez' glove over Belliard's bat, Young or Johnson's infirmary, or the team willing to eat $2 to rid themselves of Pena. Boone, Casto, Langerhans, Orr = phooey. I don't think any of those guys get a contract. They don't particularly merit one. Bernadina needs another minor league year seeing AAA pitching

STARTERS: It's a complete crap shoot for pitching, starters and relievers. Who knows what the rotation looks like other than John Lannan and perhaps Collin Balestar? Redding isn't under contract, can they keep him for the $1M he cost this year? Do they try to bring back Perez? He stayed relatively healthy and relatively productive. They clearly don't see Bergmann, Estrada or Mock as long-time starters. Do they reach for a low priced free agent? Maybe so. I'll guess Redding, Perez, Lannan, Balestar, Low Priced Free Agent.

BULLPEN: Who knows? Can Chief come back? Will Wagner's velocity return? Will Rivera's arm fall off? Here's a throw it against the wall guess: Hanrahan, Rivera, Manning, Shell, Mock, Bergmann and someone not on the roster right now, perhaps another lefty. I think Cordero starts on the DL, and Wagner, Colome and Speigner are all non-tendered.

BOTTOM(FEEDER) LINE: Until the albatrosses of Johnson, Meathook and Kearns are gone, this team is going to be stuck in the bottom third of the league. Hopefully the draft picks of the last three years turn out to produce major league players and the progress is quicker than that, but most of the talent is still 2-3 years away. Next year may look an awful lot like this year, with hopefully fewer long losing streaks due to a more consistent line-up.

Let's just hope Dukes stays out of trouble this winter and he and Zimmerman play a whole year next year. That could be exciting. Dukes is really starting to look like the player scouts have been saying for three years he could become and Zim finally looks like he's healthy again.

And when/if we start seeing some of this pitching talent in the lower levels finally start trickling up to Nationals Park, then, and only then, will the front office (whoever may be in charge by then), be ready to fill the holes with a free agent here or there.