I, very predictably, took some heat yesterday in the comments section of my 2011 Predictions and Projections Edition.  Specifically, about my comments on Michael Morse, who I predict to be the Washington Nationals "biggest disappointment" for the upcoming season.

I tried to couch it in my post, and again in the comments, that I hope Morse is capable of repeating last season's statistics of .289/.352/.519 with 15 home runs.  But the thing that stuck was I labeled him a disappointment since I don't expect him to come close to 30 home runs and I'm not optimistic enough on him.

And I think that if he doesn't hit 20-plus home runs this season, Nats fans will consider it a huge disappointment.

Yes, he's had a terrific spring training, tied for the MLB lead in spring homers with nine.  You know who he's tied with?  Jake Fox, another man without a position, for the Baltimore Orioles.  Ever heard of Jake Fox?  Fox has compiled a .236/.285/.423 slash line in 166 games in the Majors since 2006.

An old baseball adage goes:  One should never make roster decisions based on performances in March or September.

Anyway, back to Morse.

I want to make it clear, again, that I'm not "hating" on Morse.  I genuinely like the guy.  He's had his troubles in the past, but he seems to have put all that behind him and he's been healthy the last two seasons and has done nothing but rake, in the minors and the bigs.

But I've tried to make an honest, realistic projection for him this season, and there are plenty of warning flags to keep my estimates at a reasonable level as opposed to various anecdotal predictions of 30 home runs for him.

Lifetime, Morse boasts a .291/.353/.456 slash line in 237 games and 685 plate appearances.  The guy can clearly hit.  But his at bats have been managed very carefully in his career thus far.  His numbers dip significantly against righties (.279/.341/.421) and playing every day, he'll have to face a higher percentage of righties overall and won't be able to be protected in the lineup.

He is this team's No. 5 hitter, for better or worse for the foreseeable future.

The other thing about his career stats so far, in a very limited sample size, is his BABiP (Batting Average on Balls in Play).  Morse settles in at .348, which is considerably higher than league average.  It's not unusual to see a speedster with a high BABiP, as they are able to leg out hits slower runners can't, inflating their BABiP.  But we don't normally see this from a slugger.

Morse's sample size for plate appearances is still small enough in his Major League career that this bump could very well be a mirage, and a correction to league average will eat into his slash line pretty quickly.

In addition, Morse's walk rate for his career is 7.0 percent and last season was up to 7.5 percent, both lower than MLB average of 8.5 percent, so his inflated OBP is coming primarily from those extra hits dropping in rather than any plate discipline.

One last esoteric batting stat for you:  Morse's Home Run per Fly Ball rate in his time in D.C. is hugely inflated.  At 15.4 percent, it's over league average by almost double (7.6 percent).  As a comparison, Barry Bonds' career HR/FB was 18.2 percent and Ryan Zimmerman's is only 9.7 percent.

With an adjustment for playing every day in a run-producing slot in the lineup, facing a higher percentage and quality of right handed pitchers, and normalization of a few key statistics based on a small sample size, I think I'm justified in saying that I would be happy if Morse can duplicate his offensive output from last season, and I do not expect him to break out further than what he did last year.

My official projection for Morse:  380 plate appearances, .272/.337/.461 with 17 home runs.  And even then, I'm being optimistic compared to most available independent projections.

Now, should we talk about his defense?

At the beginning of the season, if you had asked a baseball fan what the Washington Nationals' biggest problem was going to be for the 2010 season, you would have gotten several suggestions:  starting pitching, the bullpen, the defense. 

They are all logical answers because the Nats were deficient in all those categories last season, and to a point questions remain regarding each still to this day.

But last on the list would have been offense.  There weren't too many folks complaining about the offense.  Why would they?

Ryan Zimmerman was coming off his best season to date.  Adam Dunn hit another 38 home runs and was on base near 40% of his plate appearances.  Josh Willingham was solid once he was inserted into the lineup on a daily basis.  Nyjer Morgan was a terror on the basepaths and hit .350 as a Nat.

But something happened on the way to the forum.

Despite occasional outbursts, the 2010 Nationals have not been a particularly good offensive team.

They are middle of the pack in most offensive categories, with a combined .261/.334/.422 line.  That ranks them 7/8/7 in the 16 team National League.  But they rank 11th in runs scored, which is the bottom line.

They are third in the NL in stolen bases, but lead the league in caught stealing.  A 64% success rate ain't gonna cut it.

The main culprit there, of course, is Nyjer Morgan.

When he came to the Nats last season, he was Superman.  The 48 game stretch he put on from the time of the trade--until he was injured trying to steal third against the Cubs--was simply incredible.  He became the face of the Jim Riggleman Nationals, getting on base, stealing almost at whim, and flopping around the outfield in stadiums from coast-to-coast.  He became an instant fan favorite.

In 212 plate appearances, Morgan hit .351/.396/.435 with 24 steals (and seven caught stealing), and he played an excellent center field.  The Nats had found the answer to one of the franchise's biggest questions.

But did they really?

This season, Morgan has reverted back closer to his career line.  In his four year MLB career, Morgan is a .297/.359/.390 hitter.  He steals bases at a 66% clip (66-of-99 career).  This season, his line is .266/.344/.385.  Not terrible.  But he's been caught stealing on half of his attempts.  That IS terrible.

If you take the eight caught stealings out of his on base percentage--might as well since he's being removed from the bases--it drops to .293.  That's sub-Guzmanian.

And Morgan's dirty little secret?  He can't hit lefties a lick.  Not even half a lick.

For his career, Morgan's line against left-handed pitching is .196/.303/.291.  This season:  .188/.304/.313, right in line with his career.

For all intent and purposes, when Morgan is in the lineup against a left-handed pitcher, the Nats are batting two pitchers in a row, in the ninth and first slots in the order. 

Two of the three batters immediately preceeding the team's best hitter--Ryan Zimmerman--are automatic outs against lefties.

Lest you think this is a trivial or minor problem, a full third of Morgan's plate appearances (56 out of 162) this season are against a left-handed pitcher.

It's a good thing the Nats have a perfect platoon partner for Morgan.  A fine defensive center fielder with a lifetime major league OBP against lefties of .410 (granted, in 78 appearances) and a lifetime minor league overall OBP of .353.

Too bad he's in Syracuse.

The other problem is the sixth spot in the order.  It has predominantly been filled by Ivan Rodriguez (19 out of 39 games).  The first two weeks of the season, Pudge was great, hitting .434/.456/.566.  Since?  .246/.267/.333.  In the past 20 games, hitting primarily in the sixth spot in the order, Pudge has had three extra base hits and walked once.

That's a big problem too.  Pudge's last three weeks look an awful lot like his overall line last season (.245/.279/.388) split between Houston and Texas.

So continue to fret over the starters not picthing deep enough into games.  Worry about the bullpen either underachieving or being overused.  Continue to be concerned about the defense.

But add hitting to the list of concerns, especially from the first and sixth spots in the order.

Posted by Cheryl Nichols, Contributor and Photographer to Nats News Network

Okay, we all know the record (4-14) and we have read the thousands of blog entries and media articles about how bad the team is playing, blah, blah, blah.

Kristen pointed out something our mothers taught us as children, “If you don’t have anything nice to say…” (you know the rest).

So how about some good news about the Nationals?! Our Offense and Smokin' Bats! The "Zimmer-Dunn" Show knows how to "Get 'er Dunn!"

Ryan Zimmerman is on fire with a 16-game hitting streak! He has tallied up hits in the seventeen out of the eighteen games played this season and .295 batting average. Zim appears to have found the stride that we all had hoped he'd find.

Mark Teixeira who? Adam Dunn leads Teixeira in all hitting categories so far this season.

Thank goodness we were able to get Adam Dunn. He is one of those few players that have actually lived up to how he was advertised. Dunn is a slugger that either hits big, walks or stikes out. I think his discipline at the plate has helped other players too. Reports indicate that he is a leader in the clubhouse and is determined to turn the team around.

Nick Johnson is much healthier than we expected! NJ is off to a great start this season with a .359 batting average and currently has an eleven game hitting streak. Based on history, the team could not put all of their eggs in one basket so decided to go out and sign a few other players in case Nick was not healthy. Now that Nick is playing well and staying healthy (knock on wood), do we trade him or keep him and trade off other parts to get depth in bullpen?

More good news: Sounds like Cristian Guzman will be activated from the DL today. Guz has a .515 BA and OBP in 7 games this season and his defense has been greatly missed. Getting Guz back in the lineup is key.

Additional good news: Willie Harris was activated from the DL last night which gives the team some versatility on the bench and some speed.

NATS LEADERBOARD
H: Zim/Dunn tied with 23
HR: Dunn 5; Zim 4
RBIs: Dunn 14; Zim 13
R: Zim 13; NJ 12; Dunn 10
TB: Zim 41; Dunn 37
SB: Maxwell 3
AVG: Guz .515 (only 7 games); NJ .359
OBP: Guz .515 (only 7 games); Dunn .475

Photos 2009 © Cheryl Nichols. All Rights Reserved.